The boldface was part of the problem presented to participants. It is a famous question because so many people get it wrong.
I can loop you in later this month
They sure are
An excellent question and one I sympathize with. While it is true that reasonable public statements have been coordinated and gotten widespread coverage, in general the community has been scrambling to explain different aspects of the AI safety/risk case in a way that diverse groups would understand. Largely, to have it all in one place, in an accessible manner (instead of spread across fora and blog posts and podcasts).
I think it was an underestimation of timelines and a related underfunding of efforts. I started working on a non-technical AI safety book last June and I also think I underestimated timelines. I hope to have the book out in October because it is urgent but it sure would have been better if I started earlier.
Given the stakes of all the things we say we care about, I think a large donor should have spent up to $1M several years ago to support the writing of 5-10 accessible books on AI safety, Bio risk, etc (at least 2 per topic), so there would be something on hand that could a) be discussed, b) be distributed, and c) be drawn from for other comms materials.
This is probably still a good idea.
No answer for you yet but I'm trying to achieve something similar in my book. I want to avoid infohazards but communicate the threat, and also provide hope. A tricky thing to navigate for sure, especially with diverse audiences.
Great post! I definitely think that the use of strategic foresight is one of the many tools we should be applying to the problem.
Hahaha. With enough creativity, one never has to change their mind ;)
I saw your presentation and thought it was great, and I'm happy you've shared it here as I'm
FYI: I’m working on a book about the threat of AGI/ASI for a general audience. I hope it will be of value to the cause and the community - LessWrong
I don't have much more to share about the book at this stage as many parts are still in flux. I don't have much on hand to point you towards (like a personal website or anything). I had a blog years ago and do that podcast I mentioned. Perhaps if you have a specific question or two?
I think a couple loose objectives. 1. To allow for synergies if others are doing something similar, 2. to possible hear good arguments for why it shouldn't happen, 3. to see about getting help, and 4. other unknown possibilities (perhaps someone connects me to someone else what provides a useful insight or something)
I guess it depends on what your priors already were but 23% is far higher than the usual 'lizardman', so one update might be to greatly expand how much error is associated with any survey. If the numbers are that high, it gets harder to understand many things (unless more rigorous survey methods are used etc)