Oh interesting, that's news to me if true, but could be the case! I'll have to ask Sinclair.
FYI the creator of the market decided to resolve the market to N/A.
This means everyone's mana is fully restored as if they never interacted with the market.
David here from Manifold.
Really cool to see you taking the time to present your thoughts in a way that is constructive whilst not holding back with your criticisms. A lot of people would have just gotten frustrated with their experience on the site and have just moved on, so thank you for this post! We definitely think about these things a lot as we design Manifold and this post could definitely have an impact on where we lean within tough design problems.
First off, let me briefly discuss why we are bullish on using a creator-based resolution mechanism.
It's true that markets involving existential risk aren't nearly as reliable as other markets. Perhaps I should have shown more care when using one as an example.
Ultimately for a market to be efficient, users have to be incentivised to trade to the best of their ability. Whilst the AI risk markets aren't going to be particularly accurate, I do think that the one I linked is reasonably representative of our user's beliefs. There is a good amount of upward and downward buying pressure on either side. My main concern with its accuracy is how many Yes shares Ca... (read more)