Crosspost from https://news.manifold.markets/p/manifold-predicted-the-ai-extinction History may look back on CAIS’s AI risk statement as a pivotal moment IF we survive AI. But, what if I told you that AI researchers “leaked” info about the statement on Manifold Markets over a week before it was published? This justifiably led to CAIS requesting...
Chat GPT-4 is already here!! Who could have seen that coming… oh wait Manifold (kinda) did? 😅 I thought I’d write a short piece on how Manifold Markets was used to predict the launch of GPT-4 and its attributes. Both its successes and its failures. Disclaimer I work at Manifold....
Just wanted to share that Manifold Markets has partnered with CSPI and the Salem Center UT to create a forecasting tournament that anyone can participate in. The top prize is a research grant for $25,000 to one of the top 5 most profitable users after 1 year. The questions being...
Oh interesting, that's news to me if true, but could be the case! I'll have to ask Sinclair.
Crosspost from https://news.manifold.markets/p/manifold-predicted-the-ai-extinction
History may look back on CAIS’s AI risk statement as a pivotal moment IF we survive AI.
But, what if I told you that AI researchers “leaked” info about the statement on Manifold Markets over a week before it was published? This justifiably led to CAIS requesting the market to be deleted, concerned that it could damage the impact of the statement.
To provide some background, the statement was signed by the likes of Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis, Dario Amodei and other prominent AI figures. Short and with gravitas it read:
“Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
Imagine... (read 3502 more words →)
Chat GPT-4 is already here!! Who could have seen that coming… oh wait Manifold (kinda) did? 😅
I thought I’d write a short piece on how Manifold Markets was used to predict the launch of GPT-4 and its attributes. Both its successes and its failures. Disclaimer I work at Manifold.
Throughout the end of last year, people were bullish on a quick release, which began to decline as we entered the start of this year.
The first spike in February corresponds to the release of Bing’s chatbot which people speculated was Chat CPT-4. Turns out it actually was! Although Open AI did a fantastic job at concealing this... (read 505 more words →)
FYI the creator of the market decided to resolve the market to N/A.
This means everyone's mana is fully restored as if they never interacted with the market.
David here from Manifold.
Really cool to see you taking the time to present your thoughts in a way that is constructive whilst not holding back with your criticisms. A lot of people would have just gotten frustrated with their experience on the site and have just moved on, so thank you for this post! We definitely think about these things a lot as we design Manifold and this post could definitely have an impact on where we lean within tough design problems.
First off, let me briefly discuss why we are bullish on using a creator-based resolution mechanism.
Just wanted to share that Manifold Markets has partnered with CSPI and the Salem Center UT to create a forecasting tournament that anyone can participate in. The top prize is a research grant for $25,000 to one of the top 5 most profitable users after 1 year.
The questions being asked will mostly pertain to economics, political and social issues.
If you would like to learn more and participate you should check out Richard Hanania's breakdown of the full details here. And this is the website if you just want to have a peruse.
It's true that markets involving existential risk aren't nearly as reliable as other markets. Perhaps I should have shown more care when using one as an example.
Ultimately for a market to be efficient, users have to be incentivised to trade to the best of their ability. Whilst the AI risk markets aren't going to be particularly accurate, I do think that the one I linked is reasonably representative of our user's beliefs. There is a good amount of upward and downward buying pressure on either side. My main concern with its accuracy is how many Yes shares Catnee has, however, the market does seem fairly stable at 25% and isn't being held there with huge limit orders or anything like that.
One of the advantages of play money is that the incentive for truth-seeking can actually outweigh the desire to profit. This sort of market would obviously never work if real money was on the line!