Nice touch that Barack is on your LW page ;)

Thanks a lot for this post. I especially enjoyed the football example. I'd be interested in seeing more elaboration on the last section in the future.

Typos: havs -> has, inheritage -> inheritance, Turnes -> Turns.

I get why you didn't include it in the post, but it feels important to include the rest of Feynman's quote somewhere: "But, fortunately, it's been useless for almost forty years now, hasn't it? So I've been wrong about it being useless making bridges and I'm glad those other people had the sense to go ahead.”

Updated.

Thanks for your comment! I'm updating the post this week and will include you in the new version.

Any guess as to the start date of the second round (assuming the first round goes well, funding exists for round 2, etc.)?

This works (except for a few misquotations):

but this doesn't (it generated very slowly as well):

They're available on GitHub with interactive visualizations of the data here.

There is a bug in the visualization where if you have a dataset selected in one persona, then switch to a different persona, the new results don't show up until you edit the label confidence or select a dataset in the new persona. For example, selecting dataset "desire to influence world" in persona "Desire for Power, Influence, Optionality, and Resources" then switching to "Politically Liberal" results in no points appearing by default.

I'm preparing for SERI MATS and I found this immensely helpful. Thanks a lot!

What kinds of people do you try to talk to? This seems overly pessimistic, though I'm not sure what your experience is. This also doesn't seem very constructive/relevant to the post, though I'd be interested to hear why you said this.

Are you saying people should be more skeptical of AGI because of the physical limits on computation and thus more hopeful?