Doug Hess

I don't know what you mean by predictive history unless you mean a pedagogical method. It is true that asking students in any field, "What might come next?" can keep them engaged, build creativity, push them to review what's been studied, get them to ask what needs to be known next, etc. However,  this would only go so far in the classroom as it doesn't teach content, sources, use of sources, interpretation, or methods (other than whatever predictive history uses). However, I'm not sure if you are using the term "predictive" in a more deterministic sense. If so, consider how bad we are at prediction. Predicting population change (which is just birth,... (read more)

Subject: Theories of Policy Process (decision making in government and other organizations)

Recommendation: Understanding Public Policy: Theories and Issues (2nd Edition) by Paul Cairney (or his blog https://paulcairney.wordpress.com/).

Reason: The interdisciplinary (or transdisciplinary) field of policy studies is essential for understanding decision-making in organizations (notably how governments make policy decisions), research and normative debates on the use or non-use of evidence in decision-making processes, and advising or influencing those who make policy. The field is broad and fuzzy around all its many edges, but several theories or related debates have spawned concepts—such as bounded rationality or decision windows—that are essential in other fields discussed on Less Wrong. 

The Scottish scholar Paul Cairney makes nearly all... (read more)