All of Edmund Nelson's Comments + Replies

Yeah that's fair, I'm just so used to American odds for gambling that I mentally use them all the time for these sorts of things.

Probably should have used good old fashioned odds instead.

 

The reason casino's show something like "Yankee's +110 Red sox -120" is so you can easily see the casino's rake or something. 

American odds can be basically interpreted as "The Net amount you win after making a $100 bet" So if the odds are +150 you win $150 PLUS your initial $100 bet if you win the bet. 

Negative american odds means "the amount you have to be to win $100" so odds o -230 would mean you have to bet $230 to win $100

2jbash
Yeah, I got that, but it's a very counterintuitive way to describe probability, especially the negative thing.

As I said epistemic status "Trivial"

This is something trivial but it's worth noticing.

The number is way too high for that. I use twitter almost an hour a day (way way too much time) and I don't hit the rate limit

2Ben Pace
I was initially using a brand new account and hit the rate limits in under an hour. Perhaps the rate limits were different for that account. I notice I didn't hit it yesterday (after I managed to login to my old account).

Daniel was definitely strange in many socially awkward ways

Knowing what I know about Daniel, I could easily psychologically manipulate him into doing terrible acts if need be. I can easily see a person who is a master of being a cult leader (which Ziz is a top tier cult leader) mentally breaking Daniel. He (at least was) a socially awkward person who took things extremely literally and was easy to push around. He's definitely up there on the "easy" category, and cult leaders like Ziz need somebody like that. Going over Ziz's tactics, while Daniel is unlikely to have developed multiple personalities, he'd easily en... (read more)

I imagine him being manipulated into giving them a place to live. I have trouble imagining him being manipulated into conspiring towards a specific goal of murder. I wouldn't be surprised if the police care little for such a distinction.

That's fair from a mental POV, but Daniel Blank physically has poor hand-eye coordination and bad reflexes, meaning that if he tried to shoot somebody he'd be extremely likely to miss at all but the shortest of ranges. (the murder in question was definitely gunshot based)

 

While he could be a part of the conspiracy his ability to have physically committed the actual act is questionable. 

Sadly I lack the skills necessary to do such a monumental task otherwise I would apply. What are the "lesser" roles you are looking for?

2jasoncrawford
CEO is the only role we're actively hiring for right now, but in time we'll need event planners, community managers, a fellowship program manager, media/PR, and similar roles. And of course we'll need writers for the fellowship program.

"I also found that, controlling for rents, the partisanship of a state did not predict homelessness""

Did Partisanship correlate with rents if so what direction?

 

Good post, it makes me think a lot of the homeless crisis is more literally "I can't buy a home". 

At what point is Ai judged to have "superhuman performance"

From what I can tell there are roughly 4 stages of "Ai performance"

Stage 1 : subhuman (this covers a lot of ground) The Ai is unable to perform as well as a top human in the field (such Ai's can still be useful) 

Stage 2: The "superhuman" stage: Ai's outperform humans on normal variations of the task

Stage 3: The "adversarial stage" : Humans find adversarial examples which let them outperform the AI (This is most relevant in games) ex [starcraft 2](

Example of exploitative play allowing human to ... (read more)

1TLW
Part of this is people analyzing AIs in adversarial contexts through the lens of non-adversarial contexts when they really shouldn't be. In a non-adversarial context, an AI that beats X 95% of the time when the top human beats X 90% of the time is often considered superhuman. And so you get people calling e.g. AlphaStar superhuman because it beat the top human. In an adversarial context, where that other 5% is in the statespace matters a lot. (E.g. if it's in a region that can be steered towards by an opponent, that's a problem.) ***** (Part of this is also that the AI training is far more lenient of low-but-ahead win rates than humans are. A human will often lean towards weaker but more-resistant-to-glass-jaws strategies, especially in tournament settings. (They are trying to beat the tournament, not, strictly speaking, get the highest % of wins.)) ***** I sometimes think that the dual benchmark of 'what's the highest rank person X beats >40%[1] of the time' and 'what's the lowest rank person that beats X >60%[1] of the time' would be more useful in evaluating AI progress. 1. ^ Semi-arbitrary numbers, don't read too much into it.
Answer by Edmund Nelson20

The main way I have gotten around these in practice has been to wager non-monetary items, things like "Whoever loses has to file the other's taxes" The method tends to work much better when you live in the same house (since housework is a very tradeable thing and is always in demand). This obviously has the weakness that it tends to work best for 50/50 wagers and is worse at the full continuum. However there are ways around this (\instead of betting on IF something will happen you can bet on WHEN, or you can bet on HOW MUCH ex "I bet 30 guests will arrive at the party tommrow, " person 2 : "I'll take the under on that")

The oldest Chess engine you can find for free online is  cray blitz https://craftychess.com/downloads/crayblitz/ which was the world computer chess champion in 1983. Unfortunately A: it is not UCI compatible and B: the oldest version available is the 1989 version. I asked Harry Lewis Nelson himself yesterday and he said that he doesn't have the source code for the 1983 version anymore. Unfortunately any farther back and the original author doesn't appear to be alive anymore. (harry himself is 89)

 

The oldest chess engine that can be called a champ... (read more)