>I'm not sure that TAS counts as "AI" since they're usually compiled by humans
Agreed, it's more "this is what the limit looks like"
>Still, I'd say this is more a programmed "bot" than an AI in the sense we care about.
Is stockfish 8 not an AI? I feel like the goalposts of what counts as "Ai" keep getting shifted. Pokebotbad is an "AI" that searches to solve the pokemon state space
I'll mention beating pokemon isn't that big of a challenge in and of itself, what's important here is that this thing that wasn't trained to do pokemon can. *
Depending on how strict you want to be with what you call AI beating pokemon we have Ai's that beat pokemon in less than 2 hours or if you want to go with the interpretation that "AI beating pokemon is a program that beats pokemon" we have "Ai's" that beat pokemon in less than 2 minutes or less than 1:30 if you want a more strict definition of "beat the game".
Yeah that's fair, I'm just so used to American odds for gambling that I mentally use them all the time for these sorts of things.
Probably should have used good old fashioned odds instead.
The reason casino's show something like "Yankee's +110 Red sox -120" is so you can easily see the casino's rake or something.
American odds can be basically interpreted as "The Net amount you win after making a $100 bet" So if the odds are +150 you win $150 PLUS your initial $100 bet if you win the bet.
Negative american odds means "the amount you have to be to win $100" so odds o -230 would mean you have to bet $230 to win $100
As I said epistemic status "Trivial"
This is something trivial but it's worth noticing.
The number is way too high for that. I use twitter almost an hour a day (way way too much time) and I don't hit the rate limit
Daniel was definitely strange in many socially awkward ways
Knowing what I know about Daniel, I could easily psychologically manipulate him into doing terrible acts if need be. I can easily see a person who is a master of being a cult leader (which Ziz is a top tier cult leader) mentally breaking Daniel. He (at least was) a socially awkward person who took things extremely literally and was easy to push around. He's definitely up there on the "easy" category, and cult leaders like Ziz need somebody like that. Going over Ziz's tactics, while Daniel is unlikely to have developed multiple personalities, he'd easily enter a few of the states Ziz mentions.
However I have no clue how Daniel would physically be able to commit certain acts his hand eye coordination is bad, and he's physically not very strong. If he tried to knife me to death he'd get knocked out by my overhand right or heel hooked into submission well before he got enough stabs in (I'm not a great boxer),
That's fair from a mental POV, but Daniel Blank physically has poor hand-eye coordination and bad reflexes, meaning that if he tried to shoot somebody he'd be extremely likely to miss at all but the shortest of ranges. (the murder in question was definitely gunshot based)
While he could be a part of the conspiracy his ability to have physically committed the actual act is questionable.
It's interesting how much of this was computer vision problems. Inability to look at the screen and determine which set of pixels is the stairs or the complete inability to differentiate cutable tree's from ones that cannot be cut. That part at least seems like the kind of problem that would go away in a year if significant effort was devoted toward the problem.
I find it fascinating how this set of children's video games from the 90s does a better job of showing off my frustrations with large language models than anything else. When you give them small concrete narrow tasks and can reliably test their output they are incredibly useful, (ex They are superhuman at helping you write small functions in code)but do not try to get them to do a long context task that you can't test intermediate steps on. (after all if you could test intermediate steps you can break the task down until you get to the smallest intermediate step and prompt the model with that step). The Hallucination problem is a lot more clear when playing pokemon than anything else, and it's much more clear about random issues in agenic ability.
The inability of models to have memory is really the major frustration currently preventing models from being used in longer contexts. Pokemon as a benchmark is in theory a 2-3 hour (sub 2 is possible but takes a lot of resets) long task from start to finish if you don't waste any time.