eillasti
136
21
eillasti has not written any posts yet.
Wow, it really, really worked out) I want my prestige points)
The word 'rational' is properly used to talk about cognitive algorithms which systematically promote map-territory correspondences or goal achievement.
I disagree with the definition "systematically promote map-territory correspondences" because for me it is "maps all the way down", we never ever perceive the territory directly, we perceive and manipulate the world via models (maps). Finding models that work (that enable goal achievement/winning) is the essence of intelligence. "All models are wrong, some are useful". Even if we get to the actually elemental parts of reality and can essentially equate our most granular map with the territory that is out there, we still mainly won't care in practice about this perfect map because it is going to be... (read 1010 more words →)
True (Scottish) Rationality is winning. Firstly, whom do we call a rational agent in Economics? It is a utility optimiser given constraints. An agent that makes optimal choices and attains max utility possible, that's basically winning. But real life is more complicated, all agents are computationally constrained and "best case" is not only practically unattainable, it is uncomputable, so we cannot even compare against it. So we talk about doing "better than normally expected", "better than others", etc. When I say "winning" I mean achieving ambitious goals.
But achieving ambitious goals in real life is mainly not about calculating the optimal choices! It is mainly about character, integrity, execution, leadership and a lot... (read 375 more words →)
How did you get the implied probabilities from the vanilla option markets? I don't know an obvious way to do it, perhaps the simplest (and wrong) approximation would be to take the BS IV of traded vanillas at the strike price and plug it into binary BS formula?
Dividing the option price by the current spot or future underlying price is definitely not a correct way to do it.
Snorting peptides directly is hilarious! I should do lines of peptides at the next corona party :)
Theoretically, it shouldn’t cause an immune response, as peptides shouldn’t be immunogenic on their own, that’s why you need chitosan as a delivery mechanism and adjuvant. However, who knows? Was it actually researched and proven that peptides on their own do not cause an immune response no matter how big is the dose and route of administration? I could well imagine that this is simply a theoretical conclusion that was never empirically verified, or that it was only verified by an injection, but not by snorting, and peripheral immune system is triggered by pure peptides, while... (read 378 more words →)
I don't know.
Yes, exactly. "None of us has tested positive using insensitive commercial point-of-care tests"
I haven't. Firstly, there is no proper data, just some bits of evidence. Secondly, yep, I am pretty sure that they would get in trouble if they did anything that looked like a trial, so I assume that they stay on the safe side and well, don't do anything like a trial.
> The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it
It should be well below 1%. Firstly, if it were that bad as to cause serious side effects for >50% of people who try it, would the RaDVaC team risk promoting it? Secondly, if it were that bad, wouldn’t we hear bad stories about side effects? Thirdly, getting serious side effects accidentally in >50% cases sounds pretty hard on its own.
> The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots
<1%, because RaDVaC team has... (read more)
Actually, I missed this one. I agree with you.
I would edit this into the main post. I am a programmer, but I missed it.