florijn
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I agree with the author of this article. After having done a lot of research on the Sleeping Beauty Problem as it was the topic of my bachelor's thesis (philosophy), I came to the conclusion that anthropic reasoning is wrong in the Sleeping Beauty Problem. I will explain my argument (shortly) below:
The principle that Elga uses in his first paper to validate his argument for 1/3 is an anthropic principle he calls the Principle of Indifference:
"Equal probabilities should be assigned to any collection of indistinguishable, mutually exclusive and exhaustive events."
The Principle of Indifference is in fact a more restricted version of the Self-Indication Assumption:
"All other things equal, an observer should reason as... (read 489 more words →)
After having done a lot of research on the Sleeping Beauty Problem as it was the topic of my bachelor's thesis (philosophy), I came to the conclusion that anthropic reasoning is wrong in the Sleeping Beauty Problem. I will explain my argument (shortly) below:
The principle that Elga uses in his first paper to validate his argument for 1/3 is an anthropic principle he calls the Principle of Indifference:
"Equal probabilities should be assigned to any collection of indistinguishable, mutually exclusive and exhaustive events."
The Principle of Indifference is in fact a more restricted version of the Self-Indication Assumption:
"All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set... (read 486 more words →)
After having done a lot of research on the Sleeping Beauty Problem as it was the topic of my bachelor's thesis (philosophy), I came to the conclusion that anthropic reasoning is wrong in the Sleeping Beauty Problem. I will explain my argument (shortly) below:
The principle that Elga uses in his first paper to validate his argument for 1/3 is an anthropic principle he calls the Principle of Indifference:
"Equal probabilities should be assigned to any collection of indistinguishable, mutually exclusive and exhaustive events."
The Principle of Indifference is in fact a more restricted version of the Self-Indication Assumption:
"All other things equal, an observer should reason as if they are randomly selected from the set... (read 516 more words →)
I don't think you fully understand my argument. It is not about being offered a wager or not, because that certainly would alter the experiment and make it very easy to decide whether halfer or thirder reasoning is the way to go.
Instead, it is about the fundamental principle the thirder's argument is based on; the anthropic principle Elga calls his Principle of Indifference. It is the key element used to justify Beauty's credence drop from 1/2 to 1/3 on waking up. This credence drop is in serious need of justification because Beauty learns nothing new when she wakes. She only learns 'Today is Monday or Tuesday' which she knew she would... (read more)