In many contexts the law of the excluded middle can certainly be brought to bear, but I would argue that reasoning about double think about driving ability is not one of them. A driver who is realistically pessimistic about their driving will drive less confidently, more hesitantly, more constantly vigilantly, and be a hazard to other drivers' abilities to model what is going on. The same is also true of the irrationally over-optimistic drivers, but modelling what a driver who seems to think they know what they are doing is more straightforward. So the optimal modelling of driving among other drivers is supported best when almost all drivers drive with somewhat more... (read 369 more words →)
In many contexts the law of the excluded middle can certainly be brought to bear, but I would argue that reasoning about double think about driving ability is not one of them. A driver who is realistically pessimistic about their driving will drive less confidently, more hesitantly, more constantly vigilantly, and be a hazard to other drivers' abilities to model what is going on. The same is also true of the irrationally over-optimistic drivers, but modelling what a driver who seems to think they know what they are doing is more straightforward. So the optimal modelling of driving among other drivers is supported best when almost all drivers drive with somewhat more... (read 369 more words →)