Disclaimer: Below is an excerpt from this week's edition of our newsletter, Predictions, which can be found here. In the second issue of Predictions, we reviewed a research paper published by Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania which explored making aggregated forecasting platforms more useful to policymakers. We...
Disclaimer: We will be speaking at the Manifest Conference in Berkeley, CA (Sept. 22-24) about long-term forecasting, its promises, and its pitfalls. Below is an excerpt from last week's edition of our newsletter, Predictions, detailing some of what we plan to speak about at the event. This week's edition can...
Disclaimer: Below is an excerpt from this week's edition of our newsletter, Predictions, which can be found here.
In the second issue of Predictions, we reviewed a research paper published by Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania which explored making aggregated forecasting platforms more useful to policymakers. We attempted to take the paper’s line of inquiry even further, and ventured to slot forecasting into the policymaking process ourselves. But in light of recent events, we now think it’s wise to both take a step back and get more specific as we think about how to leverage forecasting in high-impact areas.
Late last Friday night, Morocco was hit with a 6.8 magnitude earthquake... (read 1302 more words →)
Disclaimer: We will be speaking at the Manifest Conference in Berkeley, CA (Sept. 22-24) about long-term forecasting, its promises, and its pitfalls. Below is an excerpt from last week's edition of our newsletter, Predictions, detailing some of what we plan to speak about at the event. This week's edition can be found here.
If you are reading this newsletter, you probably have a certain amount of intellectual buy-in on the concept of quantified forecasting. However, much of the social sciences remain skeptical, to say the least, about the practice.
Take the domain of international relations, where Philip Tetlock got his start and serves as the basis for much of the quantified forecasting research. Many... (read 1302 more words →)