This post is a crosspost from my blog. Drum Beats in the Distance In a remote forest clearing, a young girl clutches a handmade doll, her eyes wide with concern. Today, her father and uncles journey deep into the wilderness on a hunt, leaving her and the village behind. She...
The Venture Capital Bubble and Its Impact on Employment The venture capital (VC) market, much like other financial markets, is not immune to the cyclical nature of booms and busts. In 2021, we witnessed a remarkable, fully-inflated VC bubble. The annual capital invested in startups had been on a steady...
The Manhattan Project - A Brief History Before I delve into the discussion on AI, I would like to take a moment to reflect on a historical event that showcases the power of interdisciplinary collaboration: the Manhattan Project. During the height of World War II, thousands of scientists, engineers, and...
Changed the title to reflect my lack of originality. :)
Thanks for the heads up.
Thanks for the feedback! I haven't read Marooned in Real Time yet, but I'm looking forward to checking it out.
As for the critique, I've certainly heard that argument a lot. It tends to imply something along the lines of: "If there were more advanced civilizations, then they would want to maximize resource/energy exploitation...and we would see the signs of that exploitation" or something of that nature. Therefore we assume that the apparent lack of Dyson Spheres or comparable artifacts proves that other civilizations don't exist.
However, I tried to present multiple reasons why I don't believe we can extrapolate our current assumptions about the "signs of civilization" and apply them to a significantly more advanced civilization. That was really the main point of the article. I also tend to think if even contemporary humans can come up with rational arguments for conservationism ideals, then more advanced civilizations probably can too.
As Segan says, "the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence."
This post is a crosspost from my blog.
Drum Beats in the Distance
In a remote forest clearing, a young girl clutches a handmade doll, her eyes wide with concern. Today, her father and uncles journey deep into the wilderness on a hunt, leaving her and the village behind. She wonders, how will her father hear her call amidst the vastness of the forest?
Her mother, sensing her worry, kneels beside her. "Fear not," she says, her voice as soothing as the rustle of leaves. "The drums of our village will speak across the forest. If your father needs us, their beats will carry his message. And if we need him, he will hear our... (read 3606 more words →)
Quick Updates:
This article talks about the ramping up of the "startup extinction event". https://www.businessinsider.com/late-stage-startups-vc-lack-funding-forced-shut-down-2023-10
Unemployment rate has increased from 3.5% in July to 3.9% in October.
Conversations with about a dozen VCs agree that most of the pain is still to come.
In short, I think we're starting to see the beginning of what I predicted as a potential outcome in this article. We'll see how things unfold over the next two to three quarters, but I am still of the opinion we'll continue to see the unemployment rate increase at a rapid pace and tech will be a significant contributing factor.
I see. Yeah, I don't disagree that inflation is better, but it is certainly not a non-issue. Imagine what happens if the Fed dropped interest rates (rather than simply pausing them at the current rate). The point I was making relative to inflation is that the traditional playbook for responding to a contraction is difficult to picture given the macro environment. My guess is that even Kevin Erdmann would agree with that.
I'd love to hear what specifically you disagree with. I don't know of anyone who believes that inflation is back to normal. Can you cite anything to back that up? Also, I'd love to see any data supporting your contention that there is a wide spread labor shortage among the subset of the labor market I'm addressing. As an active VC, I haven't seen evidence of that at all.
Yeah, I agree. It does seem like the economy is basically fine. But my argument is that the impact of the VC funding bubble has not actually manifested itself yet.
Consider this logic sequence:
The venture capital (VC) market, much like other financial markets, is not immune to the cyclical nature of booms and busts. In 2021, we witnessed a remarkable, fully-inflated VC bubble. The annual capital invested in startups had been on a steady upward trajectory, moving from $50 billion in 2013 and reaching a pinnacle of $349 billion in 2021. And as with all economic bubbles, it was bound to burst.
While precise data isn't readily available, based on the historical interplay between VC funding and startup employment, it's plausible that this wave of capital led to a surge in employment within VC-backed startups. Considering that startups... (read 1667 more words →)
Good point. Perhaps a better way to say this would be: I'm sure that my thoughts could be better and that there are gaps in my proposed plan based on my lack of expertise in relevant areas such as geopolitics, etc.
I think we'd likely be a strong society if more people openly confessed their intellectual shortcomings and asked more experienced experts to improve on their ideas. ;)
The Manhattan Project - A Brief History
Before I delve into the discussion on AI, I would like to take a moment to reflect on a historical event that showcases the power of interdisciplinary collaboration: the Manhattan Project. During the height of World War II, thousands of scientists, engineers, and policymakers from diverse backgrounds came together under a cloak of secrecy, driven by a singular mission—to develop the world's first atomic bomb.
While the consequences of this invention have been the subject of much justifiable debate, the Manhattan Project does serve as a powerful reminder of the magnitude of what humanity can achieve when we unite our collective talents and resources to tackle complex... (read 1477 more words →)
Thanks for the feedback!
Regarding whether more advanced civilizations "don't care to help"... I'm not sure if I would frame my argument that way. I would rather say that it seems plausible that much more advanced civilizations might have divergent goal structures or priorities. It's also entirely possible that their temporal experience of reality is very different if they have gone digital. So it's less about being selfish and more about a lack of practicality for making contact. I tried to cover this point to a detailed degree in the post.
It also seems plausible to me that significantly more advanced civilizations might rationally conclude there is very little upside for them to contact... (read more)