Lately I’ve been spinning up on natural abstractions, and in particular on John Wentworth’s work on natural latents. As I’ve been studying, I’ve noticed some big gaps in the existing literature. Some of my biggest questions have not been answered by existing blog posts and writeups. One of my grumps...
You're running a study that involves keeping records about humans. You have a spreadsheet with rows for each person and columns for height, weight, and eye color. You get pretty far in your study and then realize you sure could have used hair color too, but shoot, you didn't think...
This is a response to John Wentworth’s recent article, Why Physical Attractiveness Matters for Men’s Dating Prospects. I have no quibble with the thesis stated in the title, but a lot of the body of the article struck me as off-base. When John sent me the article, I told him...
I've been playing with causal inference lately, as one does.[1] I was thinking of writing a more formal sequence about how to do causal discovery and model comparison, and I might still do that.[2] Meanwhile, I'm going to start with a sort of informal diary of what I'm learning as...
A low-effort guide I dashed off in less than an hour, because I got riled up. 1. Try not to hire a team. Try pretty hard at this. 1. Try to find a more efficient way to solve your problem that requires less labor – a smaller-footprint solution. 2. Try...
This is a new introduction to AI as an extinction threat, previously posted to the MIRI website in February alongside a summary. It was written independently of Eliezer and Nate's forthcoming book, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, and isn't a sneak peak of the book. Since the book is...