happysisyphus
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happysisyphus has not written any posts yet.
happysisyphus has not written any posts yet.
surprisingly powerful demonstration soon could change things too, 1% seems low. look at how quickly views can change about things like it's just the flu, current wave of updating from gpt3 (among certain communities), etc
my (quickly-made) snapshot: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/dmtz3sNSY
one conceptual contribution I'd put forward for consideration is whether this question may more about emotions or social equilibria than about reaching a reasoned intellectual consensus. it's worth considering how a relatively proximate/homogenous group of people tends to change its beliefs. for better or worse, everything from viscerally compelling demonstrations of safety problems to social pressure to coercion or top-down influence to the transition from intellectual to grounded/felt risk should be part of the model of change -- alongside rational, lucid, considered debate tied to deeper understanding or the truth of the matter. the demonstration doesn't actually have to be a compelling demonstration of risks to be a compelling... (read more)