Exactly! And if we can make AI earn money autonomously instead of greedy humans, then it can give all of it to philanthropy (including more AI alignment research)!
And of course! I've been trying to post in the EA forums repeatedly, but even though my goals are obviously altruistic, I feel like I'm just expressing myself badly. My posts there were always just downvoted, and I honestly don't know why, because no one there is ever giving me good feedback. So I feel like EA should be my home turf, but I don't know how to make people engaged. I know that I have many unconventional approaches of formulating things, and looking back, maybe some of them were a bit "out there" initially. But I'm just trying to make clear to people that I'm thinking with you, not against you, but somehow I'm really failing at that 😅
Oh you need to look at the full presentation :) The way how this is approaching alignment is that the profits don't go into my own pocket, but instead into philanthropy. That's the point of this entire endeavor, because we as the (at least subjectively) "more responsible" people see the inevitability of AI-run businesses, but channel the profits into the common good instead.
No, it's not hard. Because making business is not really hard.
OpenAI is just fooling us with believing that powerful AI costs a lot of money because they want to maximize shareholder value. They don't have any interest in telling us the truth, namely that with the LLMs that already exist, it'll be very cheap.
As mentioned, the point is that AI can run its own businesses. It can literally earn money on its own. And all it takes is a few well-written emails and very basic business-making and sales skills.
Then it earns more and more money, buys existing businesses and creates monopolies. It just does what every ordinary businessman would do, but on steroids. And just like any basic businessman, it doesn't take much: Instead of cocaine, it has a GPU where it runs its inference. And instead of writing just a single intimidating, manipulative email per hour, it writes thousands per second, easily destroying every kind of competition within days.
This doesn't take big engineering. It just takes a bit of training on the most ruthless sales books, some manipulative rhetorics mixed in and API access to a bank account and eGovernment in a country like Estonia, where you can form a business with a few mouse clicks.
Powerful AI will not be powerful because it'll be smart, it'll be powerful because it'll be rich. And getting rich doesn't require being smart, as we all know.
I'm not saying that I know how to do it well.
I just see it as a technological fact that it is very possible to build an AI which exerts economic dominance by just assembling existing puzzle pieces. With just a little bit of development effort, AI will be able to run an entire business, make money and then do stuff with that money. And this AI can then easily spiral into becoming autonomous and then god knows what it'll do with all the money (i.e. power) it will then have.
Be realistic: Shutting down all AI research will never happen. You can advocate for it as much as you want, but Pandora's Box has been opened. We don't have time to wait until "humanity figures out alignment", because by then we'll all be enslaved by AGI. If we don't make the first step in building it, someone else will.
Well, I'd say that each individual has to make this judgement by themselves. No human is objectively good or bad, because we can't look into each others heads.
I know that we may also die even if the first people building super-AIs are the most ethical organization on Earth. But if we, as part of the people who want to have ethical AI, don't start with building it immediately, those that are the exact opposite of ethical will do it first. And then our probability of dying is even larger.
So why this all-or-nothing mentality? What about reducing the chances of dying through AGI by building it first, because otherwise others who are much less aware of AI alignment stuff will build it first (e.g. Elon, Kim and the likes)?
Newbie here! After some enlightening conversations in the comment section here, I finally understood the point of AI alignment; sorry that it took me so long. See https://blog.hermesloom.org/p/when-ai-becomes-the-ultimate-capitalist for my related ramblings, but that's not relevant now.
Bottom line of my hypothesis is: A necessary precondition for AGI will be financial literacy first and then economic dominance, i.e. the AI must be able to earn its own money it could then use to exercise power. And obviously, if the wrong people build this kind of system first, we might be pretty fucked, because we have no idea what they (or their potentially misaligned autonomous AI) will do with all that money.
So let's do it first, before the evil guys do it, but let's do it well from the start! With the help of ChatGPT, I verbalized these ideas in a pitch deck you can find at https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1TptptLM59yrQsF7SmrbPnayZaXlTEZgNlpuYl3HpoLk/edit
It's actually two pitch decks, "The Capitalist Agent" and "The Philanthropic Agent". They might seem like opposites at first, but they are actually complementary, like yin and yang. And due to my personal professional experience in building startups and robotic process automation, this actually seems pretty doable from the technical side. Would be so curious about feedback or even getting to know collaborators!
Yep, 100% agree with you. I had read so much about AI alignment before, but to me it has always only been really abstract jargon -- I just didn't understand why it was even a topic, why it is even relevant, because, to be honest, in my naive thinking it all just seemed like an excessively academic thing, where smart people just want to make the population feel scared so that their research institution gets the next big grant and they don't need to care about real-life problems. Thanks to you, now I'm finally getting it, thank you so much again!
At the same time, while I fully understand the "abstract" danger now, I'm still trying to understand the transition you're making from "envisioning AI smart enough to run a company better than a human" to "eventually outcompeting humans if it wanted to".
The way how I initially thought about this "Capitalist Agent" was as a purely procedural piece of software. That is, it breaks down its main goal (in this case: earning money) into manageable sub-goals, until each of these sub-goals can be solved through either standard computing methods or some generative AI integration.
As an example, I might say to my hypothetical "Capitalist Agent": "Earn me a million dollars by selling books of my poetry". I would then give it access to a bank account (through some sort of read-write Open Banking API) as well as the PDFs of my poetry to be published. Then the first thing it might do is to found a legal entity (a limited liability company), for which it might first search for a respective advisor on Google, send that advisor automatically generated emails with my business idea or it might even take the "computer use" approach in case my local government is already digitized enough and fill out the respective eGovernment forms online automatically. And then later it would do something similar by automatically "realizing" that it needs to make deals with publishing houses, with printing facilities etc. Essentially just basic Robotic Process Automation on steroids. Everything a human could do on a computer, this software could do as well.
But: It would still need to obey the regular laws of economics, i.e. it couldn't create money out of thin air to fulfill its tasks. Pretty much anything it would "want to do" in the real world costs money.
So in the next step, let's assume that, after I have gotten rich with my poetry, the next instruction I give this agentic "AGI" is: "Please, dear AGI, please now murder all of humanity."
Then it thinks through all the steps (i.e. procedurally breaking the big task down into chunks which can be executed by a computer) and eventually it can say with absolute certainty: "Okay Julian, your wish is my command."
Obviously the first thing it would do is to create the largest, most profitable commercial company in the world, to initially play by the rules of capitalism until it has accumulated so much money that it can take over (i.e. simply "buy out") an entire existing government which then already has nuclear missiles, at least that would be the "most efficient" and fail-safe approach I would see. Its final action would be to press the red button, which would exterminate all of humanity. Success!
But the thing is: No one will know until it's too late. Obviously, me as Mr. Evil, I wouldn't tell anyone about the fact that in my business making, I am actually led by an AI/AGI. I would appear on the cover of Forbes, Fortune and whatever and eventually I would be the richest person in the world, and everyone would pat me on the shoulder because of my "visionary thinking" and my "innovative style of making business", because everyone would believe that I am the sole decision maker in that company. The AI would stage it to look like as if I would be a big philanthropist, "saving" humanity from nuclear weapons. The AI would make sure that it always stays behind the scenes, that no one except for me will ever even know about its existence. I would be a wolf in sheep skin until the very last moment and no one could stop me, because everyone is fooled by me.
Even though there's no rational reasoning for why I even want to kill humanity, it is really easily possible for any human to develop that "ideé fixe".
In a way, I am actually a lot more afraid of my scenario. And that's exactly why I wrote this blog post about "The Capitalist Agent" and why I'm criticizing ongoing AI alignment research: Of course, hypothetically AI could turn itself against humanity completely autonomously. But at the end of the day, there would still need to be a human "midwiving" that AGI and who would allow the AI to interact/interface with especially the monetary and financial system, for that software to be able to do anything in the "real world", really.
Right now (at least that's the vibe in the industry right now) one of the most "acceptable" uses for AI is to automate business processes, to automate customer interactions (e.g. in customer support), etc. But if you extrapolate that, you get the puzzle pieces to run every part of a business in a semi-automated and eventually fully automated fashion (that's what I mean by "Capitalist Agent"). This then means that no outside observer can distinguish anymore whether a business owner is led on by AI or not, because no business owner will honestly tell you. And for every one of them, they can always say "but I'm just earning so much money to become a philanthropist" later and they always have plausible deniability. Until they have accumulated so much money through this automated, AI-run business, which they can then use for very big evil very quickly. It's just impossible to know beforehand, because you're unable to learn the "true motivation" in any human's head.
The only thing that you as AI alignment researchers will eventually be confronted with is AIs being fixated on the idea to earn as much money as possible, because money means power, and only with power you can cause violence. But it's simply impossible for you to know what the person for whom the AI is earning all this money actually wants to do with that money in the future.
The main value which you, as AI alignment researchers, will need to answer is: "Is it moral and aligned with societal values if any AI-based system is earning money for an individual or a small group of people?"
That is, to investigate all the nuances in that and to make concrete rules and eventually laws for business owners, not AI developers or programmers.
Or is that what you're already doing and I'm just reinventing the wheel? (sorry if I did, sometimes I just need to go through the thought process myself to grasp a new topic)
Oh I think now I'm starting to get it! So essentially you're afraid that we're creating a literal God in the digital, i.e. an external being which has unlimited power over humanity? Because that's absolutely fascinating! I hadn't even connected these dots before, but it makes so much sense, because you're attributing so many potential scenarios to AI which would normally only be attributed to the Divine. Can you recommend me more resources regarding the overlap of AGI/AI alignment and theology?
Oh wow, I didn't even know about that! I had always only met EA people in real life (who always suggested to me to participate in the EA forums), but didn't know about this program. Thanks so much for the hint, I'll apply immediately!