TLDR: I think public outreach is a very hopeful path to victory. More importantly, extended large-scale conversation around questions such as whether public outreach is a hopeful path to victory would be very likely to decrease p(doom). You’re a genius mechanical engineer in prison. You stumble across a huge bomb...
Hmm, not necessarily the researchers, but the founders undoubtedly. OpenAI was specifically formed to increase AI safety.
I've seen the latter but much more of the former.
This post was meant as a summary of common rebuttals. I haven't actually heard much questioning of motivation, as instrumental convergence seems fairly intuitive. The more common question asked is how an AI could actually physically achieve the destruction.
I just started a writing contest for detailed scenarios on how we get from our current scenario to AI ending the world. I want to compile the results on a website so we have an easily shareable link with more scenarios than can be ad hoc dismissed, because individual scenarios taken from a huge list are easy to argue against and thus discredit the list, but a critical mass of them presented at once defeats this effect. If anyone has good examples I'll add them to the website.
Yes, I should have been more clear that I was addressing people who have very high p(doom). The prisoner/bomb is indeed somewhat of a simplification, but I do think there's a valid connection in the form of half-heartedly attempting to get the assistance of people more powerful than you and prematurely giving it up as hopeless.
Thank you for your kind words! I was expecting most reactions to be fairly anti-"we should", but I figured it was worth a try.
TLDR: I think public outreach is a very hopeful path to victory. More importantly, extended large-scale conversation around questions such as whether public outreach is a hopeful path to victory would be very likely to decrease p(doom).
You’re a genius mechanical engineer in prison. You stumble across a huge bomb rigged to blow in a random supply closet. You shout for two guards passing by, but they laugh you off. You decide to try to defuse it yourself.
This is arguably a reasonable response, given that this is your exact skill set. This is what you were trained for. But after a few hours of fiddling around with the bomb, you start to realize... (read 2220 more words →)
Most common antisafety arguments I see in the wild, not steel-manned but also not straw-manned:
Count me in!
Hardcore agree. I'm planning a documentary and trying to find interested parties.
Honestly I don't think fake stories are even necessary, and becoming associated with fake news could be very bad for us. I don't think we've seriously tried to convince people of the real big bad AI. What, two podcasts and an opinion piece in Time? We've never done a real media push but all indications are that people are ready to hear it. "AI researchers believe there's a 10% chance they'll end life" is all the headline you need.
I honestly can't say. I wish I could.