Jackson L
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Jackson L has not written any posts yet.
Linking the The Imperial College paper here (which a lot of people have referenced lately) that addresses these two approaches: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread –reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
The biggest issue with the suppression strategy is the time required for the lockdown - until R reaches low enough levels that eliminate human-to-human transmission, or until a vaccine is available. Estimated 12-18 months... (read more)
Yes you are correct, succinctly addressed here " They ignore standard Contact Tracing [2] allowing isolation of infected prior to symptoms. They also ignore door-to-door monitoring to identify cases with symptoms [3]. Their conclusions that there will be resurgent outbreaks are wrong. After a few weeks of lockdown almost all infectious people are identified and their contacts are isolated prior to symptoms and cannot infect others [4]. " https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions