jdfaben
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jdfaben has not written any posts yet.
Also, there doesn't seem to be a convenient way to download the data, which is kind of frustrating
In case you haven't already found out, the free version has been updated to be a smaller version of GPT-3. Confirmed on twitter https://twitter.com/nickwalton00/status/1284842368105975810?s=19
I mean, I'm pretty sure the real Eliezer would in fact just say you shouldn't send any messages to a superintelligent AI, so this seems like the correct responses. Does seem to render this somewhat useless as an approach though.
I didn't really see much public discussion early outside of epidemiology Twitter. I'm married to an epidemiologist who stocked our flat with masks in December when there were 59 confirmed cases in Wuhan, and we bought enough tins of food to eat for a few weeks in January, as well as upgrading our work-from-home set up before things sold out. Although I completely failed to make the connection and move my pension out of equities, that doesn't actually seem to have cost me very much in the long run (for those keeping count, S&P 500 is up 17% year-on-year).
(The biggest very early warning sign, apparently, was that when there were 59 cases... (read more)
I'm actually confused by that response, and I don't think it's really part of your best attempt to explain what you meant by 'rationalists pwned covid'. I'll try to explain why I'm unimpressed with that response below, but I think we're in danger of getting into a sort of 'point-scoring' talking past each other. Obviously there were a few rhetorical flourishes in my original response, but I think the biggest part of what I'm trying to say is that the actual personal benefits to most people of being ahead of the curve on thinking about the pandemic were pretty minimal, and I think avoiding infection would fall in that 'minimal benefit' bucket... (read 368 more words →)
Seriously, in what sense did rationalists "pwn covid"? Did they build businesses that could reliably survive a year of person-to-person contact being restricted across the planet? Did they successfully lobby governments to invest properly in pandemic response before anything happened? Did they invest in coronavirus vaccine research so that we had a vaccine ready before the pandemic started? Did they start a massive public information campaign that changed people's behaviour and stopped the disease from spreading exponentially? Did they all move to an island nation where they could continue life as normal by shutting the border?
Honestly, it seems pretty distasteful to say that anyone 'pwned' a disease that has now killed over... (read more)
I can't speak for less wrong as a whole, but I looked into this a little bit around that time, and concluded that actually it looked like things were heading in the sensible direction. In particular, towards the end of 2014, the US government stopped funding gain of function research: https://www.nature.com/articles/514411a, and there seemed to be a growing consensus/understanding that it was dangerous. think anyone doing (at least surface level) research in 2014/early 2015 could have reasonably concluded that this wasn't a neglected area. That does leave open the question of what I did wrong in not noticing that the moratorium was lifted 3 years later...
It is now literally not true that car accidents kill more people, in either the UK or Italy, and won't be true in the US in about a week.
I've found the time-delayed log graphs like this one pretty convincing: https://images.app.goo.gl/iKrfzw9Wt7hAqkVB6
I havent, but I likely will now. I'm tempted to try and come up with some design based on the patterns and put it on a t-shirt.
My first thought was "why is there an API and not a 'download data' button?" But on second thoughts I have to admit that the set of people who want their baby's sleep data in csv format and are unwilling to use a simple API is probably quite small...