These are two different concepts. They're both useful ones. Interpreting an argument charitably has positive arguments in its own right. It can promote healthier conversational styles and more effective reasoning. Actually understanding what your counterpart is trying to say is difficult, and that is why Intellectual Turing Tests are non-trivial to pass and valuable to engage in.
Steelmanning is useful for changing your own mind, but it is at best rude to the person you are in conversation with, and can as a practice close off more substantial shifts in belief. The argument most likely to change my mind is going to tend to be the one that produces the smallest update, since that needs to conflict with fewer other beliefs about the world.
We should keep both terms, not crush the principle of charity entirely.
I have already made a Post to LW that I would not have counterfactually, and expect to do 1-2 more this week as a result of the experiment. Part of it for me is a psychological forcing function: if I did not have a particular time at which to do this, well, now I do. I will be interested in seeing if there's an increase or decrease April 8-22 relative to the pre-experiment trend: I'm not very confident in the direction, but I do have an expectation of higher variance relative to an average week.
This is a linkspost for https://keller.substack.com/p/monthly-shorts-322
So, we talk about ransomware as this serious and emerging problem. But it’s interesting to see that part of why ransomware is hard to solve is that it’s incredibly easy. Here are the top criminal groups by ransomware revenue.
The top one, Conti, is a clear market leader
How much does Conti pay their staff? New people make $1-2k. Monthly. These can’t be the best people in the world: Google has a Moscow office, to pick but one example. And Conti is protected by the Russian government! They don’t have to worry (much) about being arrested! “Just don’t work for people doing bad things” is actually really... (read 1597 more words →)
Econ in general, no. The specific model of rational actors optimizing for outcomes, the intuition for why markets often succeed at delivering on desires (at least for those with money), and the practice of making multi-stage models and following an impact in one area through to others, yes. Nobody needs macro. Lots of people need to reflexively think of how other actors in a system respond to a change, and econ is one of the more effective ways of teaching this. Critical if you want to actually have a good understanding of multi-polar scenarios. What I'm talking about is rarely adequately understood just by studying game theory, which usually analyzes games too... (read more)
Elaborating and making more explicit some of the other models here, I propose this alternative explanation which I don't think you've ruled out (and which I'm sympathetic to).
1. PhDs have no causal impact on research productivity.
2. PhDs, for the sort of person who does groundbreaking impressive original research, have substantial positive expected personal value. You get social legibility and status, you get higher pay, and it is a chance to do funded research for a few years while building useful connections. "PhDs are fun" is not a popular view in 2020, but I'm enjoying mine.
Now, I'd be surprised if this strong model is entirely true. The social legibility and status make it easier to spend more time on research, the presence potentially pushes people away from less interesting but more profitable problems, etc. But your current analysis does not allow us to distinguish between this model and its inverse (The entire observed effect of PhDs on research productivity is causal, and none of it is omitted variable bias).
It may be useful to note that a regional accent, in the UK, is much more indicative of a working class background than it is in the US.
Sadly, people have been trying to prop up that rotting corpse ever since. Goldman is a decent example.
I worry that I harmed the results by mentioning that I have meditated for cognitive benefit reasons, without a way to note that it wasn't to deal with Akrasia. I wanted to answer truthfully, but at the same time the truthful answer was misleading.
I have made a good-faith post as a result of the extension!