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Breaking the SIA with an exponentially-Sleeping Beauty

In this post I'd like to construct an extension to the Sleeping Beauty problem which is unsolvable from an thirder/SIA perspective. The core of the construction is having the number of wakings Beauty will experience follow a distribution with an infinite mean. This leads to Beauty being unable to assign...

Feb 20, 20228

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0naut

Breaking the SIA with an exponentially-Sleeping Beauty

In this post I'd like to construct an extension to the Sleeping Beauty problem which is unsolvable from an thirder/SIA perspective. The core of the construction is having the number of wakings Beauty will experience follow a distribution with an infinite mean. This leads to Beauty being unable to assign...

Feb 20, 20228

Breaking the SIA with an exponentially-Sleeping Beauty

0naut

4y

In this post I'd like to construct an extension to the Sleeping Beauty problem which is unsolvable from an thirder/SIA perspective. The core of the construction is having the number of wakings Beauty will experience follow a distribution with an infinite mean. This leads to Beauty being unable to assign normalized probability values when reasoning under SIA. Given this forum's fascination with anthropic reasoning and this problem, this may be of interest.

The original Sleeping Beauty problem

The following is a summary of the thirder/SIA approach to the original Sleeping Beauty problem. From what I can tell, this forum is very well versed here, so I won't go into too much background detail.

In the... (read 778 more words →)

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Breaking the SIA with an exponentially-Sleeping Beauty

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Breaking the SIA with an exponentially-Sleeping Beauty

The original Sleeping Beauty problem