This is an advert for an online prediction market in reputation points I’m making. It’s still in development, but currently you can sign up with Facebook and trade in two markets I’ve set up. The current scores are provisional - I’ll reset everyone’s point balance at some point if this...
Prediction markets that trade in play-money rather than real money seem like a great idea to me: they avoid all the legal issues of real prediction markets, they don't seem to be much less accurate, and it might be fun to participate in them. But I can't find any active...
Fair enough. I guess points just won't track 'reputation' for people like you with a more fluid online presence. But I still think that's not a serious problem - enough people have a clear online identity that I think the trading will mostly be sensible.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts about this! I'm a bit more optimistic that these problems will be solvable, though.
There's a zero bound to losing bets, so the game incents taking on too much risk. If you go broke, just start again.
You could start again with a different Facebook account, but that wouldn't be attached to your real identity. In order to earn reputation points attached to your regular Facebook account, you'd have to bet carefully. If people create lots of accounts anyway, it's not too big a deal - as long as the total flow of points from new fake accounts isn't too big, it'll just fund more sensible... (read more)
This is an advert for an online prediction market in reputation points I’m making.
It’s still in development, but currently you can sign up with Facebook and trade in two markets I’ve set up. The current scores are provisional - I’ll reset everyone’s point balance at some point if this is successful, so don’t worry about making bad trades.
I largely followed a proposal by Paul Christiano, but I haven't implemented all his ideas yet.
I'd be grateful if people could make some trades so that I can check everything's working. I’d also like to hear people’s thoughts on this. In particular:
Prediction markets that trade in play-money rather than real money seem like a great idea to me: they avoid all the legal issues of real prediction markets, they don't seem to be much less accurate, and it might be fun to participate in them. But I can't find any active ones online.
The only ones I can see are ideosphere.com and alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com, but there's almost no activity in either. Metaculus is very active but isn't a prediction market. I've also heard of a few like NewsFutures which have completely died. Are there any active ones that I'm not aware of? If not, why do all play-money prediction markets die?
Ok, I'll add that question soon. And thanks for the mention!