New poster. I love this topic. My own of view of the shortcoming of Bayesianism is as follows (speaking as a former die-hard Bayesian):
The world (multiverse) is deterministic.
Probability therefore does not describe an actual feature of the world. Probabilities only make sense as a statistical statements.
Making a statistical statement requires identifying a group of events or phenomena that are sufficiently similar that grouping makes sense. (Grouping disparate unique events makes the statistical statement meaningless, since we would have no reason to think subsequent events behave in the same way.)
Events and phenomena like balls in urns, medical tests for diseases with large sample sizes, even some human events like sports games, have sufficient
New poster. I love this topic. My own of view of the shortcoming of Bayesianism is as follows (speaking as a former die-hard Bayesian):
- The world (multiverse) is deterministic.
- Probability therefore does not describe an actual feature of the world. Probabilities only make sense as a statistical statements.
- Making a statistical statement requires identifying a group of events or phenomena that are sufficiently similar that grouping makes sense. (Grouping disparate unique events makes the statistical statement meaningless, since we would have no reason to think subsequent events behave in the same way.)
- Events and phenomena like balls in urns, medical tests for diseases with large sample sizes, even some human events like sports games, have sufficient
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