Lorxus

Mathematician, alignment researcher, doctor. Reach out to me on Discord and tell me you found my profile on LW if you've got something interesting to say; you have my explicit permission to try to guess my Discord handle if so. You can't find my old abandoned LW account but it's from 2011 and has 280 karma.

A Lorxus Favor is worth (approximately) one labor-day's worth of above-replacement-value specialty labor, given and received in good faith, and used for a goal approximately orthogonal to one's desires, and I like LessWrong because people here will understand me if I say as much.

Apart from that, and the fact that I am under no NDAs, including NDAs whose existence I would have to keep secret or lie about, you'll have to find the rest out yourself.

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Lorxus50

I'm going to start by attacking this a little on my own before I even look much at what other people have done.

Some initial observations from the SQL+Python practice this gave me a good excuse to do:

  • Adelon looks to have rough matchups against Elf Monks. Which we don't have. They are however soft to even level 3-4 challengers sometimes. Maybe Monks and/or Fencers have an edge on Warriors?
  • Bauchard seems to have particularly strong matchups against other Knights, so we don't send Velaya there. They seem a little soft to Monks and to Dwarf Ninjas and especially to Knights, so maybe Zelaya? Boots should help here.
  • Cadagal has precious few defeats, but one of them might be to a level 2(!) Human Warrior with fancy +3 Gauntlets. Though it seems like there's a lot of combats where some Cadagal-like fighter has +4 Boots instead? Not sure if that's the same guy.
    • And on that note, the max level is 7, and the max bonus for Boots and Gauntlets both is +4.
    • Max Boots (+4) is always on a level 7 Elf Ninja with +3 Gauntlets (but disappears altogether most of the way through the dataset).
    • Max Gauntlets (+4) is on either a level 7 Dwarf Monk who upgraded from +1 Boots to +3 Boots halfway through, or else there's two of them. Thankfully we're not facing them.
  • Deepwrack poses problems. They have just as few defeats, and one of them even contradicts the ordering I derived below! Ninjas are meant to lose to Monks. Maybe the speed matters a lot in that case?
  • It looks like a strict advantage in level or gear - holding all else constant - means you win every time. If everything is totally identical, you win about half the time. (Which seems obvious but worth checking.)
  • Looking through upsets - bouts where the classes are different, the losing fighter had at least 2 levels on the winner, and the loser's gear was no better than the winner's - we generally see that:
    • Fencers beat Monks and Rangers and lose to Knights, Ninjas, and Warriors
    • Knights beat Fencers and Ninjas, tie(???) with Monks and Warriors, and lose (weakly) to Rangers
    • Monks beat Ninjas, Rangers, and maybe Warriors, tie (?) with Knights, and lose to Fencers
    • Ninjas beat Fencers and (weakly) Rangers, and lose to Knights, Monks, and Warriors
    • Rangers beat Knights (weakly), Ninjas, and Warriors, tie with Fencers, and lose to Monks
    • Warriors beat Fencers, Ninjas, tie(?) with Knights, and lose to Rangers and maybe Monks

So my current best guess (pending understanding which gear is best for which class/race) is: 

Willow v Adelon, Varina v Bauchard, Xerxes v Cadagal, Yalathinel v Deepwrack.

If I had to guess what gear to give to who: Warrior v Knight is a rough matchup, so Varina's going to need the help; the rest of my assignments are based thus far on ~vibes~ for whether speed or power will matter more for the class. Thus:

Willow gets +2 Boots and +1 Gauntlets, Varina gets +4 Boots and +3 Gauntlets, Xerxes gets +1 Boots and +2 Gauntlets, and Yalathinel gets +3 Boots.

Some theories I need to test:

  • Race affects how good you are at a class. Elves might be best at rangering, say.
  • Race and/or class affect how much benefit you get out of boots and/or gauntlets. Being a warrior might mean you get full benefit from gauntlets but none from boots.
  • Color might affect how well classes do. Ninjas wearing red might win way less often.
    • The color does not actually seem to affect ninjas all that much if at all - 6963 vs 6762 wins. Could still be a tiebreaker?
    • Color doesn't affect things much overall either: 40136 vs 39961 wins.
  • There's some rank-ordering of class+race+level matchups, maybe an additive one.
    • Alternatively there could be some nontransitive thing going on with tiebreaks sometimes from levels, races, and gear?
    • On further reflection that totally seems to be what's going on here.
    • Maybe there's something about the matchup ordering being sorted over (race, class)? D's loss (as a L6 Dwarf Monk) to a L4 Dwarf Ninja is... unexpected to say the least!

Wild speculation:

  • If you [use the +4 Boots in combat and beat Cadagal then they'll know you were] responsible [for] ????? ?????? [Boots from his/her/the] House.  [You will gain its] lasting enmity, [and] [people? will?] ???????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??????? ?? ?? ????? ?? ????????? ?? ??? [upon] your honor [if] ????????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? friendship ???? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ?? ?? ?????.
    • So maybe we're OK to use the +4 Boots as long as it's not against Cadagal?
    • No idea how to even guess at what's going on in that second sentence apart from "bad things will happen and everyone will hate you, you dirty thief".
Lorxus30

I'm gonna leave my thoughts on the ramifications for academia, where a major career step is to repeatedly join and leave different large bureaucratic organizations for a decade, as an exercise to the reader.

Like, in a world where the median person is John Wentworth (“Wentworld”), I’m pretty sure there just aren’t large organizations of the sort our world has.

I have numerous thoughts on how Lorxusverse Polity handles this problem but none of it is well-worked out enough to share. In sum though: Probably cybernetics (in the Beer sense) got discovered way earlier and actually ever used as stated and that was that, no particular need for dominance-status as glue or desire for it as social-good. (We'd be way less social overall, though, too, and less likely to make complex enduring social arrangements. There would be careful Polity-wide projects for improving social-contact and social-nutrition. They would be costly and weird. Whether that's good or bad on net, I can't say.)

Lorxus10

Sure, but you obviously don't (and can't even in principle) turn that up all the way! The key is to make sure that that mode still exists and that you don't simply amputate and cauterize it.

Lorxus10

[2.] maybe one could go faster by trying to more directly cleave to the core philosophical problems.

...

An underemphasized point that I should maybe elaborate more on: a main claim is that there's untapped guidance to be gotten from our partial understanding--at the philosophical level and for the philosophical level. In other words, our preliminary concepts and intuitions and propositions are, I think, already enough that there's a lot of progress to be made by having them talk to each other, so to speak.

OK but what would this even look like?\gen

Toss away anything amenable to testing and direct empirical analysis; it's all too concrete and model-dependent.

Toss away mathsy proofsy approaches; they're all too formalized and over-rigid and can only prove things from starting assumptions we haven't got yet and maybe won't think of in time.

Toss away basically all settled philosophy, too; if there were answers to be had there rather than a few passages which ask correct questions, the Vienna Circle would have solved alignment for us.

What's left? And what causes it to hang together? And what causes it not to vanish up its own ungrounded self-reference?

Lorxus10

Clearly academia has some blind spots, but how big? Do I just have a knack for finding ideas that academia hates, or are the blind spots actually enormous?

From someone who left a corner of it: the blindspots could be arbitrarily large as far as I know, because there seemed to me to be no real explicit culture of Hamming questions/metalooking for anything neglected. You worked on something vaguely similar/related to your advisor's work, because otherwise you can't get connections to people who know how to attack the problem.

Lorxus10

As my reacts hopefully implied, this is exactly the kind of clarification I needed - thanks!

Like, bro, I'm saying it can't think. That's the tweet. What thinking is, isn't clear, but That thinking is should be presumed, pending a forceful philosophical conceptual replacement!

Sure, but you're not preaching to the choir at that point. So surely the next step in that particular dance is to stick a knife in the crack and twist?

That is - 

"OK, buddy:

Here's property P (and if you're good, Q and R and...) that [would have to]/[is/are obviously natural and desirable to]/[is/are pretty clearly a critical part if you want to] characterize 'thought' or 'reasoning' as distinct from whatever it is LLMs do when they read their own notes as part of a new prompt and keep chewing them up and spitting the result back as part of the new prompt for itself to read.

Here's thing T (and if you're good, U and V and...) that an LLM cannot actually do, even in principle, which would be trivially easy for (say) an uploaded (and sane, functional, reasonably intelligent) human H could do, even if H is denied (almost?) all of their previously consolidated memories and just working from some basic procedural memory and whatever Magical thing this 'thinking'/'reasoning' thing is."

And if neither you nor anyone else can do either of those things... maybe it's time to give up and say that this 'thinking'/'reasoning' thing is just philosophically confused? I don't think that that's where we're headed, but I find it important to explicitly acknowledge the possibility; I don't deal in more than one epiphenomenon at a time and I'm partial to Platonism already. So if this 'reasoning' thing isn't meaningfully distinguishable in some observable way from what LLMs do, why shouldn't I simply give in?

Lorxus10

> https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/r7nBaKy5Ry3JWhnJT/announcing-iliad-theoretical-ai-alignment-conference#whqf4oJoYbz5szxWc

you didn't invite me so you don't get to have all the nice things, but I did leave several good artifacts and books I recommend lying around. I invite you to make good use of them!

Lorxus32

(Minor quibble: I’d be careful about using “should” here, as in “the heart should pump blood”, because “should” is often used in a moral sense. For instance, the COVID-19 spike protein presumably has some function involving sneaking into cells, it “should” do that in the teleological sense, but in the moral sense COVID-19 “should” just die out. I think that ambiguity makes a sentence like “but it might be another thing to say, that the heart should pump blood” sound deeper/more substantive than it is, in this context.

This puts me in mind of what I've been calling "the engineer's 'should'" vs "the strategist's 'should'" vs "the preacher's 'should'". Teleological/mechanistic, systems-predictive, is-ought. Really, these ought to all be different words, but I don't really have a good way to cleanly/concisely express the difference between the first two.

Lorxus60

To paraphrase:

Want and have. See and take. Run and chase. Thirst and slake. And if you're thwarted in pursuit of your desire… so what? That's just the way of things, not always getting what you hunger for. The desire itself is still yours, still pure, still real, so long as you don't deny it or seek to snuff it out.

Lorxus10

@habryka Forgot to comment on the changes you implemented for soundscape at LH during the mixer - possibly you may want to put a speaker in the Bayes window overlooking the courtyard firepit. People started congregating/pooling there (and notably not at the other firepit next to it!) because it was the locally-quietest location, and then the usual failure modes of an attempted 12-person conversation ensued.

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