It's stated at the bottom of the webpage. After a few paragraphs at the start I was like... "ok surely this is AI generated" and popped it in a few detectors. i happened to scroll to the bottom to see how long the dang thing was and saw the disclaimer. i wish this former lab insider---who surely has money and at least one eloquent friend---could've paid another human being to rewrite it. but alas!
I am surprised you didn't mention the fact that the whole thing was paraphrased to preserve anonymity by Opus 4.5. (Which really stood out to me! When I first read it, I assumed it was AI-generated, and I was disconcerted to see such quality of thought coming with such a slopreek to the prose.)
AI company heads should sign the Superintelligence Statement (by their professed values)
Elon Musk, Demis Hassabis, and Dario Amodei have now all said that they would slow down if they could (or in Dario's case, "wish we had more time"). They should sign the Statement on Superintelligence---there is not much daylight between their casual remarks in public and what that statement proposes. Employees should pressure their leadership to sign this; we need to make common knowledge so that it's not so easy for them to say "but oh that will never happen."
I don't know how sincere they are about this desire. They sure don't talk about it much, and when they do, they are so insistent that coordination could never possibly happen, which is an awfully convenient belief. "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his [billion$ and global status] depends upon his not understanding it."
Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg should sign it too, of course. As should everyone! But it seems much easier to get Musk, Hassabis, and Amodei to do so.
If you're reading this and can exert any pressure on them to do so (or generally promoting signing it within your company), please please do so.
I expect some measure of "speciation" to occur, but not as a result of money-lack. Rather, some cultures will reject these techs, and as the cultures that accept these techs drift biologically farther from "base humans," the more entrenched the social and cultural divisions will be.
this is the most lesswrong thing i've ever seen. never change
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1100%! I encourage you to do so. have a soda to give yourself something to do with your hands. give yourself permission to *act drunk*, i.e., be loud, direct, shameless, goofy, emotional, etc.----other people's drunkenness can easily "rub off" on you.
love how game you are. and admittedly it differs regionally, but this can / should / does work. you haven't seen people mingle with others because (i'm guessing) it's hard to tell when "two groups are mingling" in a way that's distinct from a single group hanging out. (also in fact people do this MUCH less than they used to, but they're not much less open to it.)
i recommend college or post-college bars, followed by mixed-gender dive bars. or basement shows / unofficial bars. cocktail places are probably bad for this, they are real into Adult Alienation TM. fanciness is generally a barrier. the minglability can be roughly sussed out from the alcohol:
punch (caution!!) > seltzers and cheap beer > craft beers, whiskeys, and applebees-tier cocktails > cocktails > wine
but ensure that the bar has quiet and also has loud. that's the most important part. the presence of darts, pool, or food also helps give "handles" for conversation.
as for whom to bring and who is game for this... hard to say. varies by friends. the cost of asking is zero, though. (if you have friends who make the cost of asking nonzero, you have exhausting friends!) but yeah, if you have rat-y, great books-y friends, tell them "i am explicitly gonna go try to talk to folks at bars, as i think i'm missing something about the world. we'll get smashing drunk. it'll be great." and if they are not into that... well, try alone, i guess? also get some more adventuresome friends!
similarly, the cost of asking people who Aren't About It is zero. such folks are, in bars and high drunkenness, really rare! most folks are friendly! (in my experience, which is Virginia, NJ and NYC.) Do not underestimate the lubricant effect of alcohol. but also, if you don't like the other group, it is SO EASY to take advantage of noise, getting something from the bar, etc., to detach.
if you're just making the rounds, speaking to one group after another... this is unlikely, but also, NOBODY IS WATCHING. it is so hard to keep tabs on strangers in a bar, even if you're trying!
and how do you talk and get to know people when the music is so loud---go somewhere loud-ish---such that folks are forced to speak up and perhaps articulate more---but not somewhere that's so loud it's "clearly for dancing." (it is possible to have incredibly compressed shouted conversations, but they're not very rewarding most of the time.)
GENERAL PRINCIPLES: men are easier to approach than women. people afford you more social latitude if you're drunk and if they're drunk. to a first approximation, nobody is paying attention to you unless you talk to them. and everyone loves to talk about themselves.
if you live in NYC, New Haven, or Princeton, hit me up and i am happy to take you. EDIT: nvm I see you're Toronting atm. I cannot speak to Canadians' dispositions, but surely the politeness helps!
Nicely written and self-aware, thanks for sharing. I recommend getting drunk at a bar! (Not a sports bar. You wouldn't have much to talk about. I recommend taking a mixed-gender group of friends and deliberately mingling with other such groups, trying your best to Get To Know Folks.) You were doing the sandcastle thing.
Yes! Everyone should be sure to investigate the different tax treatments of SPX and SPY options, though---despite their near-equivalence economically, they are NOT equivalent according to the U.S. Government. (It goes beyond the short/long taxation mix)
On the one hand, I am glad to see such awareness and honesty about the risks. On the other hand, I remain furious at Dario's ceaseless insistence that a pause or slowdown is completely impossible (and so, it is implied) not even worth trying for.