Yup - although in the case of EA, that's still likely to be a very slow process. This isn't the sort of thing that can go viral. It takes months or years of cultivating before someone transfers from complete outsider to core member.
If you're talking about recruiting new EAs, it sounds like you mean people that agree enough with the entire meme set that they identify as EAs. Have there been any polls on what percentage of self-identifying EAs hold which beliefs? It seems like the type of low-hanging fruit .impact could pick off. That poll would give you an idea of how common it is for EAs to believe only small portions of the meme set. I expect that people agree with the majority of the meme set before identifying as EA. I believe a lot more than most people and I only borderline identify as EA.
So you expect movement building / outreach to be a lot less successful than community building ("inreach", if you will)?
Yes, especially if the same strategies are expected to accomplish both. They're two very different tasks.
Some of this comes down to what counts as an "EA". What kind of conversion do we need to do, and how much? I also think I'll be pretty unsuccessful at getting new core EAs, but what can I get? How hard is it? These are things I'd like to know, and things I believe would be valuable to know.
I think you can convince people to give more of their money away, you can convince people to take... (read more)
I'm saying it helps with retention but barely at all with recruitment - and that it may even get in the way of recruitment of casual EAs. I don't think Skillshare favours will make people want to self-identify as EA. Only a minority of people even require the sorts of favours being offered.
"A stronger community for the effective altruist movement should better encourage existing EAs to contribute more and better attract new people to consider becoming EA. By building the EA Community, we hope to indirectly improve recruitment and retention in the effective altruist movement, which in turn indirectly results in more total altruistic effort, in turn resulting in more reduced suffering and increased happiness."
I'm going to predict that .impact struggles to meet this objective.
I think you're taking a naive view of how movement building works.
I think you need to see the distinction between retaining and recruiting members as analogous to the tension between a core and casual fan base. In order to recruit... (read more)
Cool. Will there be a lot of overlap with Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking? Based on your description, it sounds like Dennett just wrote this book for you.
You're right. I think scientific thinkers can sometimes misinterpret skepticism as meaning that nothing short of peer-reviewed, well-executed experiments can be considered evidence. I think sometimes anecdotal evidence is worth taking seriously. It isn't the best kind of evidence, but it falls above 0 on the continuum.
The good news is that our higher cognitive abilities also allow us to overcome depression in many situations. In Stumbling on Happiness, Daniel Gilbert explains how useful it is that we can rationalize away bad events in our lives (such as rejection). This capability, which Gilbert refers to as our psychological immune system, explains why people are able to bounce back from negative events much more quickly than they expect to.
I think speaking in terms of probabilities also clears up a lot of epistemological confusion. "Magical" thinkers tend to believe that a lack of absolute certainty is more or less equivalent to total uncertainty (I know I did). At the same time, they'll understand that a 50% chance is not a 99% chance even though neither of them is 100% certain. It might also be helpful to point out all the things they are intuitively very certain of (that the sun will rise, that the floor will not cave in, that the carrot they put in their mouth will taste like carrots always do) but don't have absolute certainty of. I think it's important to make clear that you agree with them that we don't have absolute certainty of anything and instead shift the focus toward whether absolute certainty is really necessary in order to make decisions or claim that we "know" things.
To clarify, I also don't think EA has much potential as a social movement even if marketed properly. Specific EA beliefs are much more spreadable memes down the line IMO.