Avoiding Side Effects in Complex Environments
Previously: Attainable Utility Preservation: Empirical Results; summarized in AN #105 Our most recent AUP paper was accepted to NeurIPS 2020 as a spotlight presentation: > Reward function specification can be difficult, even in simple environments. Rewarding the agent for making a widget may be easy, but penalizing the multitude of...

The difficulty of correctly reasoning with probabilities reminds of something Geoff Hinton said about working in high dimensional space (paraphrasing): "when we try to imagine high dimensions, we all just imagine a 3D surface and say 'N dimensions' really loud in our heads". I have a habit of trying to use probabilities whenever I'm trying to reason about something, but I'm becoming increasingly sure that my Bayes net (or causal graph) is badly wired with wrong probabilities everywhere.
I see quite a few papers on PubMed discussing collider bias with regard to obesity-associated health risks. The effect is probably in full swing with covid research, unfortunately.