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We're in a slow-motion fuel crisis, already baked into the counterfactual petroleum supply gap. Even if the Iran War ended, immediately and completely and unambiguously, the fuel crisis would still be happening. How will humanity respond to this? Leaders, governments, corporations, individuals, and militaries are all notoriously hard to predict....
The Iran War is causing a problem with the world's near-term supply of petroleum. Even if the Iran War ended, immediately and completely and unambiguously, oil production and distribution would not recover to prewar levels for months or years. What should be done about the fuel crisis specifically, and why?...
Real-world physical oil production and refining capacity has been destroyed in the ongoing war in Iran. This will take months or years to repair, even if the war completely and unambiguously ended tomorrow. What are some possible ways to hedge against / prepare for extended oil supply shocks? E.g. investment...
Primer (2004) Content warnings here What would actually happen, in real life (circa 2004), if two typical techie engineers invented time travel by accident? Primer is odd for being both slow-burning and fast-paced. It's short and self-contained and low-budget, yet majestic and complicated and, er, "recursive". > I haven't eaten...
Over a year ago, Rohin Shah wrote this, about people trying to slow or stop AGI development through mass public outreach about the dangers of AGI: > But it really doesn't seem great that my case for wide-scale outreach being good is "maybe if we create a mass delusion of...
For the vague ideas and posts that you want to write up, but which don't feel "ready to be A Real LessWrong Post" yet. * Describe your idea on a LessWrong or LessWrong-adjacent Discord server. The adjacent servers (in my experience) are more active. For AI safety/alignment ideas specifically, try...
When talking about Elon Musk's impact on the world, I mostly look at "how has he influenced extinction risk?". This forces a stark ordering of priorities: If he created a "backup" human civilization on Mars, that would (by consequentialist reasoning) do enough good to probably outweigh even some historically bad...