nonzerosum

Can you define what AGI means to you in concrete observable terms? Will it concretely be an app that runs on a computer and does white collar jobs, or something else?

What do you expect AI capabilities may look like in 2028?

nonzerosum

From the perspective of AI progress, bottlenecks, capabilities, safety - what do you think 2028 might look like?

What are your favorite posts, podcast episodes, and recorded talks, on AI timelines, or factors that would influence AI timelines?

nonzerosum

Especially ones that do an attempt to make things pretty specific

Is there a LessWrong-adjacent place to hire freelancers/seek freelance work?

nonzerosum

I've posted a similar question before: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YyEiPQH8snk4h8BfK/who-is-available-for-contract-work-a-la-the-hacker-news-who

I'm wondering if there's a place that has a decently high volume (10+ a month) of postings/applicants.

I'm hiring a few freelancers to do AI-future research forecasting the development of AI and impact, like the sort of stuff EpochAI does, and am wondering where would be best places to post those freelance roles would be.

Any suggestions?

What are some smaller-but-concrete challenges related to AI safety that are impacting people today?

nonzerosum

Making a list of smaller but non-abstract challenges related to large topics like AI safety, that someone could work on to get practical on the ground experience.

Some examples:

Help media companies better communicate advances in AI ("Google's Sentient AI")
Help people detect deepfakes
Help online communities deal with deepfakes and set good policies
Help people detect online AI astroturfing

What else?

Who is available for contract work? (A la the Hacker News "Who Wants To Be Hired" threads)

nonzerosum

The intention of this thread is similar to the "Hacker News Freelancer/Seeking Freelancer" threads.

Please lead with either AVAILABLE FOR PROJECTS or SEEKING FREELANCER, your location, and whether remote work is a possibility.

I was inspired to post this when a friend asked me about which rationalist adjacent people were open to contract work, though other than one researcher that I'd seen mention their rate on their website, I didn't know who to mention. Though I'm sure there are quite a few who are! So, perhaps this will solve a coordination problem.

Thought experiment: Imagine you were assigned to help a random person in your community become as peaceful and joyful as the most peaceful and joyful person you'd ever met. What would you try?

nonzerosum

What general methods, tools, approaches might you take?

Certain kinds of therapy, certain kinds of meditation, certain types of medication, certain types of coaching, certain activities, certain processes, and so on. Specific things, and/or meta things.

For constraints, imagine that you can spend 5 or 6 figures of US dollars per month, you're there in person full time with them. You don't know who it's going to be, but you know they don't have any notable medical conditions or past history. They're a semi willing participant. You can try anything that exists as of May 2022.

COVID-19 estimated test detection windows for IgG, IgM and nasal PCR tests

nonzerosum

I spent a while looking for this information online and found it hard to come by, so I've compiled my research conclusions. These numbers are based on the best information I could find, but please comment with any critique or improvements.

Background info

There are two types of COVID tests. Molecular tests and serological tests.

Molecular tests are the nasal swab tests, also referred to as PCR tests.

Serological tests are the antibody tests, which can be done by a blood drop or a draw of blood.

How soon would you test positive for covid? How soon after exposure would a covid test be positive?

Nasal swab PCR test: you'd likely test positive around 3-4 days after you

... (read 204 more words →)

Avoiding coronavirus spread from family members, roommates, extended family and close friends

nonzerosum

Mostly based on this article https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

The key variables: how many people are in a space, how much airflow is around me, and how long will you be in the environment?
"Anyone you spend greater than 10 minutes with in a face-to-face situation is potentially infected."
"Anyone who shares a space with you (say an office) for an extended period is potentially infected."
Social distancing doesn't work indoors for non-brief encounters. If you're in the same room with someone for a while and they're infected, you can get exposed just via the droplets they expel when sneezing, coughing, singing, laughing, yelling, or even just breathing.
Avoiding handshakes, hugs, and social distancing doesn't seem to prevent COVID from

... (read 159 more words →)

Since the "Will COVID-19 survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate?" thread was posted, has new information emerged that may update those estimates?

nonzerosum

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4GFHbhxE2pfiadhi/will-covid-19-survivors-suffer-lasting-disability-at-a-high

Replying toPeter's COVID Consolidated Brief - 29 Apr

nonzerosum6y

Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief - 29 Apr

This is fantastic, thanks. My only wish is that it was more often, ideally weekly or 2x per week for now and then decreasing in frequency as the situation becomes more stable. This is because with it coming out less often and there being lots of seemingly significant news in the meantime, I still feel the need to stay up to date - but I think if I knew something of this quality and comprehensiveness was coming out often I wouldn't. If it was subscription only, I'm pretty sure I'd pay for it, too - though that's probably not a good thing as it'd reduce the number that can benefit.

LESSWRONG
LW

LESSWRONG
LW

Who is available for contract work? (A la the Hacker News "Who Wants To Be Hired" threads)

Since the "Will COVID-19 survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate?" thread was posted, has new information emerged that may update those estimates?

What do you expect AI capabilities may look like in 2028?

Thought experiment: Imagine you were assigned to help a random person in your community become as peaceful and joyful as the most peaceful and joyful person you'd ever met. What would you try?

nonzerosum

What do you expect AI capabilities may look like in 2028?

What are your favorite posts, podcast episodes, and recorded talks, on AI timelines, or factors that would influence AI timelines?

Is there a LessWrong-adjacent place to hire freelancers/seek freelance work?

What are some smaller-but-concrete challenges related to AI safety that are impacting people today?

Who is available for contract work? (A la the Hacker News "Who Wants To Be Hired" threads)

Thought experiment: Imagine you were assigned to help a random person in your community become as peaceful and joyful as the most peaceful and joyful person you'd ever met. What would you try?

What do you believe are the most critical open questions/hypotheses that could inform a more effective COVID response?

nonzerosum

Who is available for contract work? (A la the Hacker News "Who Wants To Be Hired" threads)

Since the "Will COVID-19 survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate?" thread was posted, has new information emerged that may update those estimates?

What do you expect AI capabilities may look like in 2028?

Thought experiment: Imagine you were assigned to help a random person in your community become as peaceful and joyful as the most peaceful and joyful person you'd ever met. What would you try?

nonzerosum

What do you expect AI capabilities may look like in 2028?

What are your favorite posts, podcast episodes, and recorded talks, on AI timelines, or factors that would influence AI timelines?

Is there a LessWrong-adjacent place to hire freelancers/seek freelance work?

What are some smaller-but-concrete challenges related to AI safety that are impacting people today?

Who is available for contract work? (A la the Hacker News "Who Wants To Be Hired" threads)

Thought experiment: Imagine you were assigned to help a random person in your community become as peaceful and joyful as the most peaceful and joyful person you'd ever met. What would you try?

What do you believe are the most critical open questions/hypotheses that could inform a more effective COVID response?