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Von Neumann's Fallacy and You
npostavs17d26

"Von Neumannn was pronounced, by a peer, to be smarter than Albert Einstein to his face and got no objection" interpretation feels off to me

I see that it's a bit ambiguous, but I read "to his face" as most likely referring to Einstein's face, which is consistent with your interpretation of Wigner.

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Richard_Kennaway's Shortform
npostavs19d10

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/StoioB9Tv9uyMbkLW/the-spectrum-of-attention-from-empathy-to-hypnosis says

The thing that makes hypnosis so bizarre and seemingly powerful is it's ability to keep attention, [...] [...] In full blown hypnosis [...] they are putting their attention where I specify without doubt or hesitation.

This sounds like it corresponds to "the idea of a state of focused attention", so I don't understand why you rejected it. Just because he talks about it as a spectrum (vs a state)? Or something else?

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Writing Out My Tunes
npostavs1mo10

I tried several things without success (each in Claude Opus 4.1, Gemini Pro 2.5, and GPT-5):

Yeah, for now you probably need something more specialized. https://electricalexis.github.io/notagen-demo/ can compose music of semi-decent quality, so with the right training a model ought to be able to manage recognition too (although more unconventional music would be harder).

that I wrote out twice as fast as it actually goes,

Music notation rhythms are relative, so I don't think this has a real meaning? Like, it might be nicer to use half notes as the main beat, and write the tune mostly in quarters, as you did in the Musescore typeset version. But the hand-written version using eighth notes to a quarter note beat conveys basically the same thing (ignoring the triplet issue).


Your last two Musescore files are missing some separation between 1st and 2nd endings. Compare the images at https://musescore.org/en/handbook/4/voltas

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Underdog bias rules everything around me
npostavs1mo21

Underdogs lose. If you win, you weren't the underdog.

Is it not more like, p(underdog_loses) > 0.5? Sometimes the thing with lesser probability happens even if the prediction was well-calibrated.

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Analyzing A Critique Of The AI 2027 Timeline Forecasts
npostavs3mo75

I don't think this interpretation can hold up: the body of titotal's post doesn't deal with the good vs bad timeline. It's just about the uncertainty of modelling AI progress which applies for both the good and bad timelines.

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AI #117: OpenAI Buys Device Maker IO
npostavs4mo10

I think it's an intentional pun, like, "whether forecasters" are people who predict whether something will happen or not.

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Penny Whistle in E?
npostavs6mo10

What about tuning the fiddle strings down 1 tone?

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