This is a post about evaluating possible experts in fields you're not in, where you are somewhat qualified to evaluate their claims.
I try to think along these lines when talking to other engineers about their jobs, but also when figuring out which of two people has got their story straight in online drama.
I frame my model using competence claims, but I think you can use it whenever people are talking about extraordinary events that they witnessed and you haven't, as long as you've got a mental model of what people are likely to lie or exaggerate about.
You can even use my lines of reasoning for legal content once you know what some... (read 1130 more words →)