All of Phil Scadden's Comments + Replies

I am going to nit-pick on Wegener. His theory of continental drift is not plate tectonics, and he was wrong for pretty much all the reasons that other geologists and physicists of the time said he was wrong. Plate tectonics was able to explain Wegener crucial observation of the continents "fitting together" but with a different and plausible mechanism. His observation was an important and theory-driving anomaly. I remember a text book from 1960s examining both the strong evidence for continental matchup and the highly problematic issues with his idea of co... (read more)

While I agree that the examples are stupid, I am not so sure about the electrical and plumbing. Connecting things to a public water supply that result in contamination from backflow/siphoning is very bad. You also dont want to electrocute a power pole worker who thinks power is off, but your house with DYO solar connection suddenly starts exporting power to grid. If I was insurer, I would take a dim view of unregister plumbing or electricial work in your house because of fire and flood risk. Where I live, so long as you are owner of property , you can do electricial that doesnt involve swithboard or cables coming into switchboard from street. Fair compromise? Drainlaying rules are still extremely strict though. 

The problem for me with porridge has always been too much water, not enough oats - I am hungry well before lunch despite feeling full at breakfast. Even more so when out in the hills, tramping/climbing.   Muesli or soaked oats dont have that problem. 

We soak whole rolled oats overnight in kefir and eat with nuts, seed and fruit for breakfast. It's my wife's favourite meal and I miss it if travelling. I do wonder about the effect of the acidic kefir on the oats. I wouldnt expect it reduce phytic acid, but I would expect breakdown of fructans and other carbohydrates into more digestable forms. That said, I really dont care much unless it's killing me. It is just a great way to start the day and gets me through to lunch without getting hungry. The slight fag is making kefir every 4th night - getting the kefir grains to scale production for more than that is problematic. 

Well for the dark humour side of things...A surgical ward in UK for guys with testicular cancer was named "The lonely ballroom"

New Zealand government research sort of does that. In 90s, the public research was reorganised into institutes - private companies but owned by government (government of day appoints the board members as position falls vacant). Initially, all government funding of these institutes was contestable - vaguely like the PI model. The cost and inefficiency of this system led to this be abandoned. Instead, the institutes get "Core" funding to support their core area (eg earth science in my case). Essentially the institutes propose very broad-brush programmes (so ... (read more)

Well here (NZ), reclaimed land is often a very problematic climate and tectonic risk.  Lots of discussion about managed retreat. Ok, plenty of 19th C stuff was done badly, but engineering for sealevel rise, earthquake (liquifaction), tsunami and storm exposure isnt cheap. Also, we have had too much finding-out-the-hard-way that coastal wetland was performing valuable environmental services that are not easily replaced. I am happy to have strong regulations around that. To make it work and be economic to maintain over very long term, then I think you need to have large area of land created compared to length of your seawall (the Dutch situation) and yes, the easy ones have been taken.

There are other things on with playgrounds I think. Here (NZ), there has been a big movement toward making playgrounds safer - which has made them a great deal less fun. Since children still want adventure and a challenge, they use playgrounds in ways not intended (eg on top of frames holding swings etc). 

Apparently our kids were "feral". As far as I can tell, this was for being allowed in the bush unsupervised. They got by on one broken leg, 4 pulled elbows, one concussion plus usual scrapes and bruises which help teach limits. All but the concussion... (read more)

I would give this a very low probability of it happening. The political risks are enormous. I don't think people react very well to having their toys taken away - including the people in your security apparatus that rulers would depend on to stifle revolt. Way worse than taking radios. I would also be extremely surprised if Russian commerce did not also depend on internet for marketing and sales now. Going back would be very hard.

But what it gets wrong is also interesting. It has an incoherent model of the world (which is probably what you would expect) and that messes with the writing.

Sorry for late reply. I meant that Contact begins with Eleanor listening to the sounds being picked up the radio telescopes and then suddenly hears the gutteral throbbing of the alien message.

Read a little more - the geologist inside me screaming "wrong,wrong, wrong" at every turn. Doesnt invite the suspension of disbelief necessary to enjoy scifi.

Opening is a massive steal from "Contact" (Sagan) in my opinion. "The low thrum of the spectrometer"!!!! This is straight steal from listening to radio telescope. Spectometers dont do that. I'm with Richard Kennaway on this. (and only read chapter 1 and 35.

Such much to agree with. I couldn't care less about long hair or stylishness but care a lot of about sense of humour and having things in common to do. But, hey, I have only really had one relationship, 30+ years and counting. Shape sadly does matter - I dont find very overweight attractive. Also wouldnt consider anyone not close to my age, probably +/- 2

I cant see that working for a whole lot of subjects. At its' heart is idea of degree as accreditation of competence. However, "competence" extends far beyond passing an examination for a lot of subjects. eg most science subjects that I can think of. Actual work is likely involve field and/or lab work and when I hire, I am looking for grads that I have confidence in those competencies. I don't see how you acquire that from exams-only approach.

I would also say from my own experience that lectures were really only a big thing at first year (NZ uni) or in math... (read more)

Mask-wearing falls foul of political values which are a major obstacle to rational thought. If just wearing a mask was ironclad protection, then there wouldn't be an issue. Those that wanted protection would wear them and those that preferred unmask could take the risk. The moment that there was a suggestion that an  unknowingly infectious person could reduce the risk of infecting others if they masked then a can of worms opened up. The implication is that everyone's safety is improved if everyone wears mask. Whoops! that would be collective action ve... (read more)

Given the no. of upscores on this, then maybe I should expand. Firstly, if don't suffer from insomnia then chances are that you get into bed, close your eyes and go to sleep. You are not counting sheep or some more sophisticated exercise in an effort to get to sleep. If you do suffer from insomnia, then this is this the destination you are aiming for. The sleep hygiene stuff is important because you want to train your brain that this place, this time is for sleep. But shutting off bad brain behavior is more complicated. Understanding the feedback loops is ... (read more)

Excellent! Not feeling tired makes it a lot easier to enjoy life.

Some self-administered CBT. The VA CBT-I app helped, as did understanding the issue via the free course at https://insomniacoach.com/. Complimentary was doing some mindfulness stuff. There was key things that worked together and never looked back since. 

One of those behaviour spirals. Noticing that if brought back to alert before fully asleep (eg by hynpojerk or disturbance) then hard to get to sleep. Then starting to panic if it happens, then worrying about the insomnia etc etc, down you go.

A number of smart watches detect snoring, sleep apnea/oxygen level type issues. Sleep lab sounds expensive. Good luck with regular hours. My first job had 5:30am starts which quickly ended my wild night-owl antics of varsity. Have had regular sleep hours ever since (and became a morning-person to my surprise).  Insomnia issue in later life had another cause.

Hmm, having spent last year helping out with 3 people receiving cancer treatment and becoming badly immune-compromised by that, I have some sympathy. It is a nightmare for these people and their carers. Not just covid but flu as well. During first lockdown here in NZ, it was a lot easier. People masked, distanced and isolated. But post-vaccination, everyone just wants to get on with lives and everyday tasks become risky for the immune-compromised and close contacts. I say good for your wookie for asking for distancing. It is hard to do when not the norm. And good for you for giving that person space without a fuss. You dont know what their story may be.

Couldnt agree more. I have no patience for audio and video. Too slow. Might watch instructional on video if I cant find decent manual. Not much into conferences either - just let me see the papers.

Well I battled with insomnia and the first bit of dealing with that is good sleep hygiene. Not exactly secret, but this would be rules like:
1/ regular bedtime.
2/ Use bed only for sleep and sex
3/ Relax before bed
4/ Room dark, quiet and comfortable temperature.

What are you issues with sleep quality exactly? Wakeful spells? getting to sleep?

I would agree that gap between conservative and liberal is large (and where I think a balkanized media is exacerbating the difference).  I agree with original statement that many politicians have less radical (in public) views than the median voter because you need attract swing voters to win an election. Hardline politicians can only win in hardline electorates (but gerrymandering can help).

In the first poll, I see Republican support for specific measure to reduce CO2  range from 55%-88%. Since the questions deal with specifics, I think they avoid the tribal response and reflect true beliefs as opposed to "belief about beliefs".

On abortion, I agree that median democrats believes abortion should be legal in all cases, but NOT "up until birth" (low support for trimester).
 

Really? I am pretty horrified if either of those describe "median" positions. Doesnt seem to fit with eg:
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/06/23/two-thirds-of-americans-think-government-should-do-more-on-climate/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/06/25/majority-of-americans-support-abortion-poll-finds---but-not-later-in-the-pregnancy/?sh=bfbc45b50744
https://news.gallup.com/poll/350486/record-high-support-same-sex-marriage.aspx

Again, as an outsider, I scratch my head over the behavior of the US politicians themselves. It seems more centrist positions would indeed bolster election chances, but instead politicians play to their bases and I dont think that helped Trump nor is it helping Biden. Despise of compromise? Or that playing to the base is necessary for winning the primary and you cant retreat? I find your hypothesis 4 pretty compelling. 

I think elections are generally close because successful parties have evolved to find electable platforms. If you always lost, you wou... (read more)

I think when you look at level remaining support for truly disastrously unpopular governments, it seems about 50-60% of population view politics as tribal and would vote for their tribe no matter who the candidate is or what the policy statement. Furthermore, voters are likely to vote for party rather than candidate because you only get your preferred policies if you your party wins. Of the remainder, a substantial proportion are still tribal and would only vote for the opposition rarely in cases where fed up. ("death of a thousand cuts"). Truly swinging v... (read more)

"Being unafraid to look stupid is a truly formidable quality" - I like this. I use a rather similar strategy to get things out of the other people that otherwise might not bother to help or respond. I propose a solution or put up a prototype that really wont work, public as possible. Others then jump to respond to show how much better they are and how stupid I am. Works best against big egos and/or people that don't like me. Shamelessly borrowed from film on discovery of DNA where Watson and Crick deployed it against Pauling. Dont know how true the film was but I was struck by the tactic.

Yes, I agree. Or at very least a much greater use of referendum in legislation making. 

i dont think the US government would fit the normal definition of a modern parliament. We (NZ) have had the odd independent in parliament but extremely rare - generally an electoral MP that has fallen out with their party. Much more common in Australia but they have a different voting system (preferential in Aus, versus MMP here). As to mess in Israel, they also have MMP, but with a threshold of only 3% to get an MP into parliament. Any time last 28 years that people complain that our threshold is too low, Israel and Italy are pointed to as why lowering it... (read more)

Well Australia tried not to have parties - they weren't recognized by the constitution till 1977 - but they happened anyway. Getting agreement on a piece of legislation is very much about the art compromise unless you have a direct democracy. Compromises like, if you vote for this, then I will vote for that. This builds the electoral platform that people actually vote on and naturally give rise to parties. A lot of parliament's strength come from parties - especially the opposition being effectively a shadow government and able to make a smooth transition ... (read more)

I am not sure you can read too much by immediate reaction. If the article amounts to an attack on beliefs they are vested in, then initial reactions can be strongly defensive (lawyer mode - defend a position), but a week of thinking about it can result in change. The positive sign there is coming back to you with more questions. (a shift to science mode - curiosity about truth).

I read an interesting book defending and explaining the truth of evolution written primarily for a Christian audience. The author explained the process whereby he changed from being... (read more)

I battled pretty major insomnia and beat it with "bog-standard" CBT-I. Reflecting, i think there are key useful tricks.
1/ Never toss and turn. Get up and read for 20min. Seriously.
2/ Learn some kind of mindfulness/meditation exercises that you practise when not in bed. Particularly body-scan. I didn't understand why CPT-I pushed this as it seemed counterintuitive, but it trains your brain NOT to notice discomfort/body position.
 

Well government bureaucracies have some special constraints. The tax payer wants them to be as small and cheap as possible, but to perform like an organization of 10 times the size. The pandemic through interesting curve balls to the health system. In normal times, the system is expected to be extremely lean and focused on maximizing health benefit for dollar. Every cent spent on a bureaucrat is a cent not spent on someone's heath. In not-normal times, it suddenly has to come up with rules for public safety - things like maximum no. of people in indoor ven... (read more)

Interesting. I worked in and with a few bureaucracies in NZ and I very much doubt there is a single model to explain or predict behavior, because multiple utilities and motivations are present. They are plagued (as are private companies) by the levels problem where information between levels of management can get twisted by differing motivations and skill level. As other commentators have pointed out, upper levels of the management can be extremely risk adverse because they crucified for mistakes and unrewarded for success. While "blame-minimization" might... (read more)

200 years ago was different world - reading wasnt required. Ask anyone who cant read as an adult how tough that is. The 10% with dyslexia need intervention fast.

Ok, I am curious, if they dont read or write in first 4-5 years, what do you expect them to learn in those years? 

Or maybe another place. Extremely unusual for kids here to have phones in first 4-5 years of schooling. And much as my dyslexic relative would like to read what a computer game is saying, it doesnt  inspire the hard work needed for learning to read. Not fun compared to other screaming around with a ball.

Living in the modern world means that a child really needs to learn to read and write/type. For many children, they would much rather be outside playing. Me and my children were motivated and reading before arriving at the school gate. We "suffered" the harms above to some extent unnecessarily but for many, many of classmates, some from homes with no books, learning those basics was tough. They certainly werent going to learn it at school without restricting their liberties. The harms suffered in that were well and truly compensated for by the critical lif... (read more)

Pattern - to first question. In my country, schools and teacher in schools are judged formally or informally by pass rates. Universities, not much, and university lecturers would only be investigated if there was serious concerns about incompetence or unfair exams.

As I said, my discomfort is with tone that teachers are doing it wrong and all teachers are bad.  

Eg "It's fine if the kids aren't paying attention to what you're teaching, why are you trying to teach 20 kids at once anyway?"

Well, because as teacher, you dont have a choice. 

eg "Have it ... (read more)

Hmm, I had to look up what "critical theory" is, but I do remember complaints like in early 80s about one college in particular. A friend of sister went through it and called it the "Society for the Protection of the Unborn Thought" (Society for Protection for Unborn Child was a prominant anti-abortion organisation here). Needless to say, it didnt make an impression on her, and think that particular problem vanished in reforms of the 90s.

My daughter went through the conventional college route to teaching but the complaint were more lecturers hobby horses o... (read more)

ChristianKI. That I think is a USA problem, but many teachers here (NZ) have rated teaching college as pretty much waste of time, with all their real learning coming from ground-zero experience under good mentors. As I perceive it, the problem with teaching college is that they are closely aligned with the university system and lecturers want to teach their research interests, not necessarily "strategies for effective engagement of ADHD and ASD students in your classroom". My daughter-in-law went through experimental system where she was put into classroom... (read more)

I would admit outright that there are bad teachers - I was fortunate in not having many, but certainly knew which ones in the school were. What I am uncomfortable with is that I perceive that the harms described are criticisms of the process, whereas I think that much of the process is created by the structures in which school exist. Schools structures and teaching practise has evolved to meet the expectations and constraints that the wider society has imposed. 

Eg - paying attention. Well if teacher is explaining say difficult part of german grammar t... (read more)

"What makes you believe that?"

Largely based on studies on class size. Some say effect is only modest but reducing class size from 35 to 25 is pretty meaningless. Reducing below 20 though is different story. A high-needs child in a large classroom is really going struggle - only so much time that a teacher can give them.  I have also looked at what experiments in "Charter schools" have done - with much higher $$ per child than state are able give. 

Anecdotally, (and from serving on school board), what is wanted is quality teachers but pay and conditions make retention difficult.

Having lived with teachers, in-laws are teachers, daughter and daughter-in-law are teachers, I find some of criticism of schools unrealistic. Faced with 30 kids, 10 of them from dysfunctional homes, 3 with specific learning difficulties and expectations from society/government that they will be ready pass this exam at end of the year, some tough choices get made. Getting better results from schools needs more funding than taxpayers are prepared to hand out. Pay out lots of dough to private schools and you get two big bonuses - much smaller classes and far fewer children from dysfunctional families. 

Do you mean something like, "Whether or not we deem an observation to be 'good' depends on why we're making observations, since 'goodness' only exists in relation to goals?"

Frankly, yes. I would be regarded as a very absent-minded person, for the usual reason of spending a lot of time thinking and pretty much oblivious to other things. I like my daily life structured by habit so brain is unencumbered by paying attention to the mundane. I dont claim this as a good thing, but it is the what I am. The meaning of "Observation" to me is strongly rooted in my tr... (read more)