How much more unlikely is it that I will throw 15 consecutive snake-eyes, than that I will throw 11 consecutive snake eyes?
I should allocate about -170 dB of belief to the likelihood of throwing 11 snake-eyes, and about -232 dB to the likelihood I will throw 15 snake-eyes. The ~60 dB difference indicates the latter event is 6 orders of magnitude more unlikely.
What does it mean if someone thinks the difference is smaller?
If 6 orders of magnitude of improbability are glossed over, that means the person does not comprehend it in gut terms.
To what other event might I allocate -60 dB to? How about flipping a... (read more)
Let's make the debiasing technique more rigorous.
How much more unlikely is it that I will throw 15 consecutive snake-eyes, than that I will throw 11 consecutive snake eyes?
I should allocate about -170 dB of belief to the likelihood of throwing 11 snake-eyes, and about -232 dB to the likelihood I will throw 15 snake-eyes. The ~60 dB difference indicates the latter event is 6 orders of magnitude more unlikely.
What does it mean if someone thinks the difference is smaller?
If 6 orders of magnitude of improbability are glossed over, that means the person does not comprehend it in gut terms.
To what other event might I allocate -60 dB to? How about flipping a... (read more)