I'm looking forward to read it, because I think one of the current bottlenecks that limit how many predictions i do is that i cannot easily compare how i'm doing week after week, and i have been looking for a model that help me check how i'm doing for several predictions.

Because 8.86×10−30>2.76×10−30 Person A is also a slightly better predictor than person B.

Wait, i got confused by the function you used to assign the calibration score. It worked in that case, but it will yield higher values for those who make more 'correct' predictions, not those who are more calibrated. For example, person A predicts 100 things with 60% confidence, 61 of them turns out to occur and person D predicts 100 things with 60% confidence, 60 of them turns out to occur. Person D is more calibrated, but gets a lower score than person A, ~5.9e-30 vs ~8.86e-30 (and person E who made 100 predictions with 60 % confidence, which all turned out to be true, would score ~6.53e-21).

Does anyone think that Anki is better than real life use for learning? For rote memorization, yes. For other more complex tasks, no, and it is not even its intended use.

Or is it perhaps more of a (possibly imperfect) substitute for when one cannot avail themself of a real life usage setting to apply what they have learned?

As others mentioned before, it is a complement for other study tools. It won't make you fluent, and probably it will not even help you directly to read/write/listen/speak, but it will make shortcuts to help you comprehend faster and make the other study sessions more effective, and it will save time for you and your tutor/teacher from the most basic things and you'll be able to focus on more important things that the tutor is really necessary.

I'm not sure what are your objectives, but i recommend that you start doing some reading/listening as soon as can, and start adding all the vocabulary you see for the first time to Anki. I noticed that they usually repeat themselves very often, specially when dealing with similar materials (like another news piece related to the one you've read before), and Anki will make it very easy to recall then in the "real life" and it will reinforce itself.

For reading, i recommend trying some wikipedia articles about something you like, e.g. a game, a famous person, etc., because you will probably already know about what they are talking about and you will be able to focus on the foreign language. If you want another help, skim over the english language article, as they usually cover the same points.

I'm not sure about korean news, but news are also a good source of reading material, despite it being very boring at the beginning when you only catch the most basic things and it looks like it is a waste of time compared to reading them in english. But, as you read more and more, you'll start to stumble on news that are a continuation or very related to the ones you have read before, and there will be a huge overlap of what you already read (and memorize) and what you are reading now.

For listening, i've been using some japanese variety shows (which also have a huge amount of written text shown on the screen) and i try to write down every word i think i could infer or that i think it is crucial to understand what is going on. I'm using VLC, and reducing the playback speed by 10% (the smallest step) makes a huge difference and makes it much easier and pleasant to watch. You can also try finding some vloggers or streamers, if you marginally interested in games, and it could also be a good listening exercise.

For writing/speaking it gets harder to get a good practice, because it requires another speaker to provide feedback. For writing i've used Lang-8, where you write you and a native corrects the text, and you do the same in the language you are fluent for other users.

I'm glad you could already find the answer for it, and I hope your dad gets better.

I'm writing just to say something that has worked for me (I'm also allergic). When I was stung by a wasp, I found that applying a cold compress reduced the swelling considerably, and I recovered in a matter of hours. When it happened before and I didn't use the cold compress, I remember it taking days to recover, and I could not walk properly while it was swelled. Both times I was stung on my ankle.

The paragraph that starts with "Fourth, ..." is shown twice.

Hurting knees can be due to riding in too high a gear.

Another common mistake is having the saddle height too low, forcing you to bend the leg too much and putting more stress on the knees to move the pedals down. Even a few centimeters (~5cm) can make a big difference, but it will feel strange at the beginning and it take some rides to get completely accustomed to the different movement.

The software I'm using is AutoKey. What do you use? Are you happy with it?

I'm using LXDE as a desktop environment and it allows you to set the shortcuts in its config file. If I'm not mistaken, other flavors, like GNOME and KDE, had a GUI to bind a certain key sequence to a script.

It seems that it catches the keybindings instantaneously and any lag is due starting a program called by the script, but it is usually around 1 second, which is similar to launch the program independently.

Autokey sounded very promising, but it is too slow. I wanted to port my emacs keybindings to use system wide, but it was impossible to use due to its lags.

This is also a good idea. I'm pretty fast at typing and pretty slow with the mouse, so I'd probably instead make a macro for "prompt me for a search key, open a new tab, search that thing, then take me back to the tab I was in before".

My (shell) scripts are pretty simple, the one that prompt me for a search query is:

xclip -o -selection p > query.temp
leafpad query.temp
query=$(<query.temp)
key=${query%%[ .:]*}  # get only the first word or 'www' or 'http*'
case $key in
    "wiki") # search on wikipedia
	term=${query#* } # get from second word to end
	url="https://www.wikipedia.org/search-redirect.php?family=wikipedia&language=en&go=Go&search="
    ;;
    ## Other cases omitted
    *) # didn't matched anything -> search on web
	# there is a command --search, but it opens a new window
	url="https://duckduckgo.com/?q="
	term=$query
    ;;
esac
/opt/firefox/firefox --new-tab "$url$term"
rm query.temp # remove the temp fifo

And a fast search of the current selected text:

query=$(xclip -o -selection p)
if [[ $query =~ ^(http|www).*$ ]]; then
    url=$query
elif [[ $query =~ ^.*\..{2,3}(/[^ ]*)?$ ]]; then
    url=$query
else
    url="https://duckduckgo.com/?q="$query
fi
/opt/firefox/firefox --new-tab "$url"

I started with the first one, which offers more flexibility, but most of time I use the fast one and I edit the query if it doesn't return the desired results.

It is really nice to have someone reporting on those little things that make a good (unseen) impact on their workflow and that we usually don't even consider the possibility of having them. I have something like that implemented and I also noticed that reducing those small frictions result in much more notes and less disruption of the current task, you think of something, a note is added in a few seconds and you can continue working on.

They are also surprisingly easy to implement, and I got surprised how fast it took me to have something functional. I think the effort put into writing the script was paid back pretty fast, since some of them took just some minutes to write and test. But, I think the biggest obstacle to do something like that is having the idea and some basic knowledge of programming to do it, and I'm not sure how to transfer it to other people. Maybe giving them the code with very detailed comments and providing some step-by-step tutorial of how to do it. Would you mind sharing your code?

Now, to add a note to such a file, all I have to do is click inside the command-prompt I have in the top corner of my screen, type "l " plus the name of the list,

I found that using some keybindings to rely solely on the keyboard also made a good improvement. There are several available keys that can be used to call the scripts directly, and if it depends on a parameter as in your case, I use the system tool that ask for a command then run it, on LXDE it is A-F2 or W-r (the same from windows).

I recommend also implementing some scripts to search on the web what is selected by the cursor or open a text file to get a query to be searched. While I'm reading I just open new tabs in the browser to find things I want to look for more details. I doesn't interrupt the reading flow and I also don't forget to search for them later (and I don't have more the thought that there was something I wanted to search by I don't remember what).

Portuguese uses the same vowels terminations for genders, but our articles are a simple 'a or 'o' (instead of 'la' 'lo') and we also use 'e' as the and connector. It means that the vowels 'i' and 'u' would still free for the third gender, but we do some vocal accommodation orally (I'm not sure about the correct linguist term) and often the sound 'e' becomes 'i' and 'o' becomes 'u' (it does not happen the other way). Because of that, all of our vowels are already "taken" with just two genders.

I found it fascinating that it works so well in Spanish and not at all in Portuguese, even with both languages being very similar (I feel that Portuguese is slightly more gendered than Spanish).