Robert_Scarth
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The risks in government bonds aren't only those of default. Inflation (or exchange rates if you hold foreign bonds) can reduce the real value of bonds.
tc said "If you're an optimist about the economic effects of AI/nanotech etc, then it seems that should make the chance of defaults less likely, not more."
This is correct, but what are you holding the bonds for? Suppose during the next 30 years we experience a technological singularity. Your 30 year bonds will pay out as you expect, but the money will buy you relatively much less stuff; you might even be very poor by contemporary standards. (Incidentally what would the best investment/consumption strategy be if you... (read more)
This might also explain why some women often think that "all men are bastards" - there are a few cads out there in continual circulation and with no intention to settle down, whereas men with honourable intentions have much fewer relationships, and settle down more quickly.