Samuel Albanie

TL;DR: I predict there will be an initially sharp (and then later smooth) increase in 50%-task-completion time horizon in the near future, significantly above the trend suggested by Figure 1. 

This is primarily due to (i) the prevalence of high-context tasks at greater task durations; (ii) “context overhang” - information that’s not currently placed into the context window but likely soon will be.

Before going into details, I’d like to say:

• I think this paper is excellent. I applaud the authors for the care and attention they put into its execution, particularly the use of multiple sanity checks for external validity.
• The authors provide detailed discussions around their use of “low-context” tasks in both the Measuring