Probably someone on LessWrong has money on Binance, being the largest cryptocurrency exchange. I'd like to draw their attention to the crime risk, and suggest they move the money elsewhere. The CFTC has a lawsuit against both Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao ("CZ"). Whatever your general views on regulating...
On Manifold, you'll see lots of markets like "Will AI wipe out humanity by 2040?". These prices aren't very informative, and they trade more like opinion polls. The anthropic bias ruins it, because YES holders can't win mana without being dead. Though even for NO holders, the timeframe and opportunity cost make it unappealing (we can get higher annualized returns elsewhere). I can't do much about that obstacle yet.
But I wanted to try capturing AI risk from a more falsifiable angle.
Other disasters share a familiar power law curve. Take for example the worst novel plagues, which are disproportionately worse than mid-sized ones,... (read 620 more words →)
not that realistically we had any control over SBF's actions or identity as an EA
Agree little could be done then. But since then, I've noticed the community has an attitude of "Well I'll just keep an eye out next time" or "I'll be less trusting next time" or something. This is inadequate, we can do better.
I'm offering decision markets that will make it harder for frauds to go unnoticed, prioritizing crypto (still experimenting with criteria). But when I show EAs these, I'm kind of stunned by the lack of interest. As if their personal judgment is supposed to be less-corruptible at detecting fraud, than a prediction market. This has been very alarming for me to see.
But who knows -- riffing off the post, maybe that just means prediction markets haven't built up enough reputation for LW/EA to trust it.
Part of your decision of "should I go on semaglutide/Wegovy/Ozempic?" would be influenced by whether it improves lifespan. Weight loss is generally good for that, but here's a decision market specifically about lifespan.
Since I've been getting downvoted for what have felt like genuine attempts to create less-corruptible information, please try to keep an open mind or explain why you downvote.
In 2022, Peter Zeihan predicted that over the next decade, 1 billion people would probably die from famine.
No, probably not.
EDIT: I see that my approach won't avoid downvotes even as a shortform. I think that's very unfortunate. Consider the message received.
Short forms it is! Thank you.
Also, I probably assume more readers accept the framework than they do. That prediction markets are worth using, that a market's accuracy rises in a vaguely lognormal way with trading activity, and a random reader usually can't beat it unless the market has few traders. I could try including a link to Scott Alexander making similar points for me.
You're probably right that a more directly relevant criterion could be tried. So here is a prototype series, starting with the 3 biggest exchanges.
Ah, I didn't even notice that clickbait aspect of the title, I'm so used to thinking of "whistleblower markets" as a thing. I've edited the title to just say Manifold market.
Thank you for the response. I actually do have a whole series where some comparisons could be made between crypto enterprises. You're right that a single is less informative. In the future, I'll assume I probably won't have the energy to write up a detailed comparison, and just won't bother trying to communicate my markets on LessWrong. Not meant to sound bitter -- this is useful and will avoid wasting time. (EDIT: Unless there's some way to format low-quality attempts as prototypes for feedback, perhaps that could be desirable.)
Thank you for describing this. My reaction in point form:
-I can understand that general prior against financial advice. After FTX, I had assumed many people here would want to know about such a high risk with the largest crypto exchange. I can certainly skip posting about such risk outliers here in the future.
-I'm not sure "not scholarly enough" is generally that predictive. I've seen many posts with many upvotes that didn't seem very scholarly. I understand the site is trying to maintain more scholarly habits though. If a Manifold market doesn't tick the right boxes, then thank you for letting me know.
-On manipulation: such a market is probably harder to manipulate than... (read more)
I see the first 2 votes were downvotes. Consider me interested in understanding.
Probably someone on LessWrong has money on Binance, being the largest cryptocurrency exchange. I'd like to draw their attention to the crime risk, and suggest they move the money elsewhere.
The CFTC has a lawsuit against both Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao ("CZ"). Whatever your general views on regulating crypto, this specific situation has a practical risk to investors. Because further than just a CFTC lawsuit, my market gives high odds of criminal charges against CZ. Not just higher than the U.S. population, but actually higher than other crypto project managers.
I didn't want to prematurely declare CZ a danger to investors. So I waited until the market efficiency grew with more traders.... (read 228 more words →)
Wanted: has anyone on LessWrong said they moved money off an exchange, after seeing my markets? I made a meta-market asking if literally anyone would be influenced to move money off any exchange mentioned in any of my crypto-related markets.
If you've been influenced by any of my markets on the relative exchange risks, please let me know so I can reward predictors.