Sir Edmund
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"That means that for our posterior from above, if you choose blue, the probability of the majority choosing red is about 0.1817. If you choose red, it's the opposite: the probability that the majority will choose red is 1-0.1817 = 0.8183, over 4 times higher."
It may well be that I don't understand Beta priors, or maybe I just see myself as unique or non-representative. But intuitively, I would not think that my own choice can justify anywhere close to that large of a swing in my estimate of the probabilities of the majority outcome. Maybe I am subconsciously conflating this in my mind with the objective probability that I actually cast the tiebreaking vote, which is very small.
Thank you for making this. I have enjoyed following the D&D.Sci series, even though I don't get around to posting full solutions.
One thing that the series has given me is a better awareness of the limits of data science. Given enough time and effort, you can parse a data set along as many dimensions as you please, but the amount of time and effort needed grows exponentially based on the number of possible variables. If this scenario were a video game, I imagine that just controlling a party through a few different dungeons, and thereby seeing which enemies did high damage against which parties, would quickly give an intuitive sense and at... (read more)
Regarding the overall levels of successful teams: I was surprised to see that the total average level of adventurers on victorious teams was 3.69474, and on defeated teams it was 3.477. That's not as big a difference as might be guessed, and it suggests that the precise composition of the team (mix of types of adventurers) matters a lot more than the overall level. This is very helpful, because levels are the primary constraint on our resources.
To get possible insight into the various roles, I calculated the victory rates of teams that lacked a specific type of adventurer. Here they are:
No Fighters: 740/1247
No Rangers: 845/1308
No Mages: 766/1235
No Clerics: 654/1230
No Druids: 821/1215
No Rogues:
If we filter the data based on the encounter which ended an unsuccessful Adventuring party, I notice that the groups foiled by Poison Needle Traps disproportionately had no Rogues.
Filtering by adventurer type, I notice that groups with no Rogues did not do well against dungeons with PNTs.
Thus, I think including at least one Rogue on the team heading for the Lost Temple of Lemarchand is wise.
Just noting that the Authority framework does get one bullet point in the list of values:
"The rule of law, justice systems, and legitimate authority"
Agreed that Loyalty (except for other constraints related to Claude's loyalty to its operators) and especially Purity do get short shrift.