Discussion article for the meetup : Auckland Preliminary Meetup WHEN: 08 March 2014 02:00:00PM (+1300) WHERE: Albert Park, Auckland I got back from the second Melbourne CFAR workshop recently and it was good. It's well worthwhile having a local rationalist community and while there are some good thinkers in my...
This isn't really the time of year for it, but I would like to gauge the interest in a meetup group for Auckland, New Zealand. If you'd like to attend, please reply, and then we can sort out a time and place.
Does it make sense to apply the Kelly Criterion to Hanson's LMSR? It seems to intuitively, but my math skills are too weak.
Thanks.
So I've kind of formulated a possible way to use markets to predict quantiles. It seems quite flawed looking back on it two and a half weeks later, but I still think it might be an interesting line of inquiry.
This doesn't always apply. It can, for example, leave you with an hour to kill at a train station, because you decided it would be really embarrassing to show up late for your ride to a CFAR workshop because of the planning fallacy.
Yep.
Shorter posts when you're starting is a step in the right direction.
What could you do to make reading alone more pleasant, without a trade-off in productivity?
System 1 is the intuitive one, system 2 is the formal reasoning.
"If it's yellow let it mellow, if it's brown flush it down."
This is one of the first things I remember learning, growing up with tank water.
I got back from the second Melbourne CFAR workshop recently and it was good. It's well worthwhile having a local rationalist community and while there are some good thinkers in my immediate circle of friends, meeting more and learning from each other would be awesome.
I'm not sure if others will be using it, but let's meet near the gazebo in Albert Park at 2pm Saturday. I'll be carrying my CFAR bag and water bottle if you want to come over and say hi. I would be wearing a "Just shy, not antisocial" shirt if I had one. If you're interested in coming, just comment, or come anyway.
Cheers, Marcel.
This isn't really the time of year for it, but I would like to gauge the interest in a meetup group for Auckland, New Zealand. If you'd like to attend, please reply, and then we can sort out a time and place.
Sorry, should've been more clear.
I've started work on a rudimentary play money binary prediction market using LMSR in django (still very much incomplete, PM me for a link if you'd like), and my present interface is one of buying and selling shares, which isn't very user friendly.
With a "changing the price" interface that Hanson details in his paper, accurate participants can easily lose all their wealth on predictions that they're moderately confident in, depending on their starting wealth. If I have it so agents can always bet, then the wealth accumulation in accurate predictors won't happen and the market won't actually learn which agents are more accurate.
With an automated Kelly... (read more)