This is a set of short vignettes, posed purely as food for thought, to expand thinking and understanding of how other people outside of rationality-sphere understand and navigate social "games". I'm deliberately using "he/they" to refer to all characters in these stories, as opposed to any other pronouns, identifying details...
I think we're close to hitting points where improvement in ai in general scenarios will get more and more difficult to achieve over time, and from here on out, each gain in capability will cost exponentially more. I think the concrete evidence I'm using for the claim matters less than...
My comment may be considered low effort, but this is a fascinating article. Thank you for posting it.
While I find the Socrates analogy vivid and effective, I propose considering critics on posts under the same bucket as lawyers. Where Socrates had a certain set of so-called principles-- choosing to die for arbitrary reasons, I find that most people are not half as dogmatic as Socrates, and so the analogy/metaphor seems to slip short.
While my post is sitting at negative two, and no comments or feedback... Modeling commenters as if they were lawyers might be better? When the rules lawyers have to follow shows up, lawyers (usually) do change their behavior, though they naturally poke and prod as far as they can within the bounds of the social game that is the court system.
But also, everyone who is sane hates lawyers.
Part of the problem with verifying this is that the number of machine learning people who got into machine learning due to lesswrong. We need more machine learning people whom were able to come to doom conclusions of their own accord, independent of hpmor etc, as a control group.
As far as I can tell, the number worried about doom overlap 1:1 with lesswrong posters/readers, and if it was such a threat, we'd expect there to be some number of people coming to the conclusions independently/of their own accord.
This post was inspired by parasitic language games.
This is a set of short vignettes, posed purely as food for thought, to expand thinking and understanding of how other people outside of rationality-sphere understand and navigate social "games".
I'm deliberately using "he/they" to refer to all characters in these stories, as opposed to any other pronouns, identifying details have been removed etc etc.
Lawyers in the United States are known for being incredulous about literally everything. There was, once, a lawsuit I was privy to, pretty standard-faire. The harmed family was suing an insurance company for money. They had hired an expensive, high-falootin' $200/hour forensic engineer to take a look at the evidence of the car... (read 758 more words →)
That framing makes sense to me.
Is knowing someone's being an asshole an aspect of hyperstition?
I met an ex-Oracle sales guy-turned medium-bigwig at other companies once.
He justified it by calling it "selling ahead", and it started because the reality is that if you tell customers no, you don't get the deal. They told the customers they would have requested features. The devs would later get notice when the deal was signed, and no one on management ever complained, and everyone else on his "team" was doing it.
How do we measure intent?
Unless you mean to say a person who actively and verbally attempts to shun the truth?
Any preferred critiques of Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreements?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Graham's_Hierarchy_of_Disagreement-en.svg
Extra layers or reorderings?
I think we're close to hitting points where improvement in ai in general scenarios will get more and more difficult to achieve over time, and from here on out, each gain in capability will cost exponentially more. I think the concrete evidence I'm using for the claim matters less than the test, but I'll cover my beliefs anyway.
In many respects, this is a religious belief I hold, one I've got in my gut. You might even say I hold this belief as a negative response to the calls of ai doom. I admit my motivated reasoning here, and that it is going to be extremely difficult to dislodge.
Dislodging this belief will take... (read 1270 more words →)
This was an extremely enjoyable read.
Good fun.