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In 2021 I wrote what became my most popular blog post: What 2026 Looks Like. I intended to keep writing predictions all the way to AGI and beyond, but chickened out and just published up till 2026. Well, it's finally time. I'm back, and this time I have a team...
The Long-Term Future Fund has an AMA up on the Effective Altruism Forum. There’s no real deadline for questions, but let’s say we have a soft commitment to focus on questions asked on or before September 8th. I'd prefer centralizing the questions to one place. If you don't want to...
Summary * The Center for AI Policy is a new organization developing and advocating for policy to mitigate catastrophic AI risks. * We are hiring for a Government Affairs Director and a Communications Director. We’re also open to other roles. The deadline to apply is October 30th, 2023. About Us...
(Cross-posted from the EA Forum.) Introduction This payout report is meant to cover the Long-Term Future Fund's grantmaking starting January 2022 (after our December 2021 payout report), going through April 2023 (1 January 2022 - 30 April 2023). * Total funding recommended: $13.0M * Total funding paid out: $12.16M *...
This is a relatively clean subproblem that we came upon a few months ago while thinking about gradient hacking. We're throwing it out to the world to see if anyone can make progress. Problem: Construct a gradient hacker (definition below), or prove that one cannot exist under the given conditions....
This post summarizes a discussion between Thomas Larsen and John Wentworth. They discuss efforts to buy time, outreach to AGI labs, models of institutional change, and other ideas relating to a post that Thomas, Olivia Jimenez, and I released: Instead of technical research, more people should focus on buying time....
In our last post, we claimed: > On the margin, we think more alignment researchers should work on “buying time” interventions instead of technical alignment research (or whatever else they were doing). But what does “buying time” actually look like? In this post, we list some interventions that have the...