I. The Device Imagine a device that listens to all of your conversations. It has a single purpose: live-running your utterances through text-davinci-003 to evaluate how surprising each token is, given its preceding context.[1] Users could chart their verbal novelty throughout the day; highlight and share their most unusual turns...
I. Planarian worms are perfect regenerators. That is, they’re immortal. If you cut off a chunk of one, it will grow back, and the worm will continue as before. This also means that a large enough chunk will grow into a separate worm. And in fact, some species of planaria...
I made this clock, counting down the time left until we build AGI: It uses the most famous Metaculus prediction on the topic, inspired by several recent dives in the expected date. Updates are automatic, so it reflects the constant fluctuations in collective opinion. Currently, it’s sitting in 2028, i.e....
I added the ability to switch to the strong question! You can do it here.
I. The Device
Imagine a device that listens to all of your conversations. It has a single purpose: live-running your utterances through text-davinci-003 to evaluate how surprising each token is, given its preceding context.[1]
Users could chart their verbal novelty throughout the day; highlight and share their most unusual turns of phrase; note which friends put them on well-worn paths and which help them careen into the chaotic underbrush.
Undoubtedly, some would be disturbed by the long stretches where every one of their words could easily have been generated by the model. In those hours, they might as well have lost consciousness, taken a little nap while Daddy Altman autopiloted their mouth.[2]
Consider: for how many... (read 514 more words →)
Thanks for pointing this out, and sorry for not monitoring the comments more closely. It was a rounding error -- should be fixed now.
I.
Planarian worms are perfect regenerators. That is, they’re immortal. If you cut off a chunk of one, it will grow back, and the worm will continue as before.
This also means that a large enough chunk will grow into a separate worm. And in fact, some species of planaria reproduce this way, instead of sexually. They split in half, and each half becomes a full worm again.
So, a question: if Wormy the planarian splits in half and becomes two new worms, which one is Wormy?
You can’t just pick one, since they share equal amounts of flesh with Wormy. You could argue that Wormy is dead and that these are his children. But what... (read 1337 more words →)
"Beginning of the end" doing some (/probably too much) heavy lifting there. I think it's the inflection point in a process that will end with transhumanism. And my personal projected timeline is quite short, after that initial shift.
I'm planning to add an option for the strong AI question; I should probably just make it possible to point to arbitrary Metaculus predictions. That way someone could use a more direct transhumanism one, if they want.
Yeah, the fake precision is definitely silly, but I thought the ticking helped get across the underlying message (i.e. this timeline is most likely finite, and shorter than it may feel). This is more about that emotional reminder; Metaculus is obviously the best place for the full info, including crucial historical trends.
Okay, it should be significantly faster now!
I picked it because it has the most predictions and is frequently pointed to as an indicator of big shifts. But you're right, I should work on adding an option to use the strong question instead; I can see why people might prefer that.
I’m so glad the idea resonates with you!
You’re exactly right about the slightly slow loading — it’s on my list to fix, but I wanted to get something out there. :)
I made this clock, counting down the time left until we build AGI:
It uses the most famous Metaculus prediction on the topic, inspired by several recent dives in the expected date. Updates are automatic, so it reflects the constant fluctuations in collective opinion.
Currently, it’s sitting in 2028, i.e. the end of the next presidential term. The year of the LA Olympics. Not so far away.
There were a few motivations behind this project:
Hey! Sorry the site was down so long; I accidentally let the payment lapse. It's back up and should stay that way, if you'd still like to use it. I also added a page where you can toggle between the predictions.
But no worries if you're happy with your own. :)
EDIT: I just realized you only posted this 2 days ago! I didn't see your version before fixing the site; I had actually just logged in to update anyone who cared. :P