If I understand correctly, Eliezer believes that coordination is human-level hard, but not ASI-level hard. Those competing firms, made up of ASI-intelligent agents, would quite easily be able to coordinate to take resources from humans, instead of trading with humans, once it was in fact the case that doing so would be better for the ASI firms.
Mechanically, if I understand the Functional Decision Theory claim, the idea is that when you can expose your own decision process to a counter-party, and they can do the same, then both of you can simply run the decision process which produces the best outcome while using the other party's process as an input to yours.... (read more)
“Twitter, I mean X” in 2045 had me dying. So did the California red tape part. Awesome job.
Agreed, and we have well-meaning conservatives like Ben Shapiro taking marriage and monogamy as almost an unfalsifiable good, and then using it as a starting point for their entire political philosophy. Maybe he's right, but I wish realistic post-birth-control norms were actually part of the overton window.
I think much of the difficulty comes from the fact that past systems-of-the-world, the unexamined normalcies that functioned only in silence, were de facto authored by evolution, so they were haphazard patchworks that worked, but without object level understanding, which makes them particualrly tricky to replace.
Take ancient fermentation rituals. They very well may break down when a child asks "why do we have to bury the fish?" or "why bury it this long?" or "why do we have to let it sit for 4 months now?"
The elder doesn't know the answer. All he knows is that, if you don't follow these steps, people who eat the fish get sick and die.
Going from... (read more)
I'm single because my current location is amazing in every way except its density of young, childless people. I have met somewhere between 300-1000 people over the last 4 years, and of those, 8 have been women between the ages of 20-30.
Most are 40+ parents, the rest are those parents' kids. The sad truth (I think), is that I simply have to move if I want to date.
Same. It would take incredible effort to find one person I reasonably connect with each year.
So much of this is just location. I've met 100s of people over the last few years. Nearly all either over 40 with kids, or those kids. I've connected with many, maybe 10%, on a pretty good level. That doesn't help with dating at all.
I just really, really don't want it to be the case that he only answer is: move to NY, SF, or Seattle, becuase I really like it here.
As someone who's gambled professionally, I believe the (Chesterton's) fence around betting for normies exists because most bets are essentially scams, which is why I'm entirely okay knocking it down for LWers. Let me elaborate.
Probability is complicated and abstract. Not only that, human intuition is really bad at it. Nearly all "bets" throughout our modern history have not been the kind of skin-in-the-game prediction competition we're praising on lesswrong - they've been predatory. One person who understands probability using emotional and logical minipulation to take someone else's money, who doesn't.
Society protects people with taboos. "Betting is icky" is a meme that can easily spread, and will quickly reproduce, becuase it's adaptive in... (read more)
You could be hypothyroid. What's your morning body temperature?
I've had the exact same experience. Chores like that are the exact kind of thing your brain says "nope" to (forcefully) when you don't have enough energy available. I've had this symptom for most of my life, and it's gone away during the times I've been healthiest.
This - small chores seeming entirely awful - was positively correlated with all my other symptoms: insomina, depression, acne, brain fog, idopathic fatigue, and breathlessness under exertion (much more than normal). They all arrive and abate together, indicating they're all the result of an underlying root cause, and it's probably low energy availability, since my body temp has been 96.5 for most of my life.
That's my current hypothesis anyway, and the QOL improvements getting up to ~97.4 have been tremendous, so I'm sticking with it.
Shout out to Karl Marx for correctly identifying many issues with what he called capitalism, but providing a compeltely inaccurate hypothesis as to the root cause of those issues.
Based on other posts I've seen on here, many of you are Bitcoiners. While I clearly see the value proposition, I have a few questions about the protocol that haven't been answered, and I figure the lesswrong audience is my best change.
1.) Will the fee market actually work?
Is there any evidence of a fee market working, incentive wise? Gold used inflationary proof-of-work indefinitely. Miners extract value from the monetary network by making more gold. They can increase or decrease their mining efforts due to supply and demand. This yielded a 1-2% inflation rate into perpetuity, and acted as a stable monetary system for many centuries.
Bitcoin... is trying to replace the model of... (read 205 more words →)
If we had a reasonable sized cohort of psych experts with an average IQ of 140+ maybe this would work. Unfortunately, the sorting processes that run on our society have not sorted enough intellectual capital into those fields for this to be practical, even if the crystalized knowledge they provide might be useful.