ursusminimus's Shortform
Feb 19, 20252
ursusminimus
22
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I assume there is something in the canon, written 15 years ago, along similar lines, but here is a thought:
Assuming the resolution of the Fermi Paradox is that advanced alien civilizations exist, but choose to say hidden from us (for whatever reason), the most logical point of breaking the cover would be as humanity approaches ASI. It seems that ASI comes earlier in the tech tree than space travel or similar technological breakthroughs that would also warrant breaking cover.
The corollary to that is, of course, that when the first civilization achieves an aligned ASI, this triggers the race for the light cone to prevent others building unaligned ASIs.
So, if P(saved from ASI by aliens|advanced alien civilizations exist and are close enough) is high (e.g. 95%?), what is P(saved from ASI by aliens)?
I was not aware of this distincion before, and I think it is correct. However, in practice I think (believe?) this can't be discussed in isolation without considering simulacrum levels. My impression is that often people don't make object-level statements when they say "I believe in", but rather want to associate themselves with something.
Maybe a rough example:
That was fun. Made me sign up after years of lurking :)
Hope I will get the spoiler right
1. Kick in the door
2. Break the window with a fist, climb out
3. Dive roll through the window
4. Front flip through the window
5. Throw your phone with enough force to break the door
6. Throw your phone with enough force to break the wall
7. Ram head first through the wall
8. Call your mother to come get you
9. Call the emergency numbers so someone gets you
10. Get a date via tinder, then let them get you out.
11. Convince a random stranger on some obscure web forum to get you out
12. Hack into the buildings security via WiFi