I found this article because someone linked it to the all roads load to Rome (ARLR) fallacy [https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/1dyuxtm/the_all_road_lead_to_rome_fallacy_is_better/], where there's no evidence that would reduce someone's confidence but there is evidence that would increase it. This commonly occurs with conspiracy theorists where an absence of evidence is evidence of a cover up. I think the article was a good pointer even if the point is kind of trivial. I still had to sit down and formally prove some of the authors conclusions, however. For example, P(H|E) > P(E) --> P(H|~E) < P(E) which more directly shows that a Bayesian reasoner can't fall for the ARLR fallacy. So I think the author could... (read more)
I found this article because someone linked it to the all roads load to Rome (ARLR) fallacy [https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/1dyuxtm/the_all_road_lead_to_rome_fallacy_is_better/], where there's no evidence that would reduce someone's confidence but there is evidence that would increase it. This commonly occurs with conspiracy theorists where an absence of evidence is evidence of a cover up. I think the article was a good pointer even if the point is kind of trivial. I still had to sit down and formally prove some of the authors conclusions, however. For example, P(H|E) > P(E) --> P(H|~E) < P(E) which more directly shows that a Bayesian reasoner can't fall for the ARLR fallacy. So I think the author could... (read more)