It seems to me that the rationality movement is doing a sub-optimal job at proliferating. I have seen on multiple occasions posts which suggest that LessWrong is in decline. I think that this has a lot to do with organization, and by organization I mean the effectiveness with which a group of people obtains its goals. I believe that rationality has a more populist message, and I would like to see it refined and spread. I have a collection of my thoughts https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0B9BZfCmYSqm-TTlfRW1hMVJ5VnM&usp=sharing, with the more concise and up to date summary of my suggestions https://docs.google.com/document/d/1I-T-jiuhHr951FUHZ6q-KUW4oK-GHCjF9bVGr2dwR1M/edit?usp=sharing. I have not developed these ideas to the point where I am strongly attached to them.... (read 184 more words →)
I think it depends on the size of the world model. Imagine an agent with a branch due to uncertainty between two world models. It can construct these models in parallel but doesn't know which one is true. Every observation it makes has two interpretations. A single observation which conclusively determines which branch world model was correct I think could produce an arbitrarily large but resource bounded update.