That title is Elon Musk’s fault, not mine, I mean, sorry not sorry:

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Release the Hounds

Grok 3 is out. It mostly seems like no one cares.

I expected this, but that was because I expected Grok 3 to not be worth caring about.

Instead, no one cares for other reasons, like the rollout process being so slow (in a poll on my Twitter this afternoon, the vast majority of people hadn’t used it) and access issues and everyone being numb to another similar model and the pace of events. And because everyone is so sick of the hype.

The timing was a curious thing. Everyone including Musk worked the weekend. They released the model while it was still being trained, and when it could only be rolled out to a small group. No one has API access. There was no model card. We got only a handful of benchmarks. Elon Musk loves to talk about how other people aren’t transparent while revealing very little information himself.

There is the obvious implication that Musk wanted very badly to claim the top spot on Arena and otherwise claim that he had the ‘smartest model in the world’ during the narrow window between now and the release of the full o3 and GPT-4.5, and he knew if OpenAI had wind of his plan too soon or he took too long, they (or Anthropic, or someone else) might beat him to the punch.

Musk presumably wants to send the message xAI has caught up to the pack and is a top tier competitor now. I don’t quite think they’ve earned that, but this was an impressive release relative to expectations. They’re closer than I guessed.

The Expectations Game

[I locked this paragraph on 2/16]: Will Grok 3 live up to Elon’s hype, I asked several days before release? My presumption was no. Teortaxes said yes, John Pressman says there’s a learning curve, presumably implying it’s not that indicative that Grok 1+2 weren’t impressive.

Did Grok 3 fully live up to Elon Musk’s promises? No, but it’s Musk. Of course it didn’t fully live up to his promises. His favorite pastime is saying that which is not via Twitter, so much so that he bought the platform. Your expectations have to adjust for this, and for the previous lousy track record of xAI in particular.

Grok 3 d...