Larks comments on Is an Intelligence Explosion a Disjunctive or Conjunctive Event? - Less Wrong
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Comments (15)
You seem to be using logical terminology in a non-standard way. I'm not sure if this has any bearing on your conclusion (though there does seem to be a risk of confusion with 'causative'), but I thought you might like to learn the standard terminology; its hard to pick up if you don't have a philosophy background. If we were intended to make some distinction by your usage, I missed it I'm affraid.
Many conclusions follow from {A,B} whose truth value doesn't depend on the truth value of B - like A, or (Pv¬P). You probably mean that the conjunction (AnB) and the disjunction (AvB)'s truth values depend on the truth values of A and B; you're confusing conclusions, which are things arguments have, with disjunction and conjunctions, which have truth values. Conjunctive (disjunctive) arguments is simply an argument with conjunctive (disjunctive) premises.
Soundness is a property of arguments, not conclusions, and possibility is a modal notion that you probably don't want to bring in. I think you mean;
"Disjunctive arguments are powerful because the probability of the conclusion can be higher than the probability of the disjuncts. However, if each of these disjuncts is in fact a conjunction, then the the disjuncts are a lot less probable than they might appear, which makes the conclusion a lot less probable. You might try transforming the premise into conjunctive normal form to see how conjunctive the argument really is."
Again, you're confusing arguments and formulas. A conjunction (AnB) is true iff A is true and B is true. The conclusion of a conjunctive argument, (AnB) |- C, is necessarily true if (AnB) is, but might be true even if (AnB) aren't.
Also, instead of defining 'presuppositions', which already has a different role in logic and language (e.g. my saying "The present king of France is bald" might be thought to presuppose that there is a present king of France, if we follow Strawson rather than Russell.), you could simply talk about the logical implications: if A must be true for B to hold, then (A->B) is true.