Multiheaded comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (2012) - Less Wrong
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Comments (1430)
I have a suspicion that we'll only be able to produce any totalizing model that's much good after we crack human intelligence in general. I mean, look at all this entangled mess.
Well, "that's much good" is the tough part. It's not at all hard to make a totalizing model, and only a little harder to make one that's hard to disprove in hindsight (there are dozens in the social sciences) but all the existing ones I know of tend to be pretty bad at prediction. The status-seeking model is one of the better ones -- people in general seem more prone to avoiding embarrassment than to maximizing expected money or sexual success, to name two competing models -- but it's far from perfect.
Yup. My point exactly.