Dolores1984 comments on Welcome to Less Wrong! (2012) - Less Wrong
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Actually, my default response for this sort of thing is to immediately go to a hospital, and get a head CT and a chat with a certified psychiatrist. I mean, sure, it could be the supernatural, but we KNOW mental illness happens. The priors for me being crazy (especially given some unique family history) are not very low. Much, much higher than the odds of a deity actually existing, given the aforementioned Occamian priors.
You don't. Rationalism only works if God isn't fucking with you. That said, there's a huge space of possible constructs like that one (entities that conveniently eliminate all evidence for themselves). It's not infinite, but it's arbitrarily large. From a rationalist's perspective, if any of them were real, we wouldn't know, but the odds of them actually being real in the first place are... not high. Again with the Occamian prior. So, I'm not much moved by your analysis.
That said, I am curious what your personal experience was.