khafra comments on Open Thread, May 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong
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I think I see a problem in Robin Hanson's I'm a Sim, or You're Not. He argues:
However, if just two large-scale, full-detail simulations are run, and the rest are all famous people and NPCs, those of us in the epistemically privileged position of being fairly ordinary should still guess at 2/3 probability that we're in a simulation.
The alternative option, if observer-moments in partial "interesting period/place/person simulations" overwhelmingly outnumber those in full simulations, is that I'm extremely likely to become famous, sooner or later; and this should outweigh my very low "inside view" probability of fame.
Should I start preparing for my moment of glory, or re-examine my reasoning?